Buddhist Catholic Contemplative Evangelical General Christian Hindu Jewish Latter-day Saint Muslim New Visions Progressive Christian

Beliefs

Topics

Columnists

Resource Library

Research Tools

Video

Podcasts

Thought Readers

Faith In Media Tracker

Newsletters

Ad-Free & Subscriber Log-In Subscription Support

Follow Patheos

Home
Catholic
Demography and the Future of Religion: Eric Kaufmann’s Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?

Demography and the Future of Religion: Eric Kaufmann’s Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?

Last updated on: May 3, 2017 at 7:02 pm by Brett Salkeld

Demography and the Future of Religion: Eric Kaufmann’s Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? 2017-05-03T19:02:30-05:00 Brett Salkeld

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

I have always been curious about the role of demography in the spread of religion. As a religious person who already has more children than the Canadian national average (not that that is saying much!) and who plans on having more, I have always found the idea that religion is dying out to be a little hard to believe. In my own experience, religious people have larger families than non-religious people. That, it seemed to me, was a significant point that is not generally taken into account.

Eric Kaufmann

The problem was, however, that I really had no idea how the numbers actually work themselves out. What kind of fertility advantage do religious people actually have? And how does that advantage relate to conversion and/or apostasy? How successful are religious people in raising their kids in the faith?

With these questions never far from my mind, I was delighted when I walked into the library the other day to find Eric Kaufmann’s Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? I took it out immediately.

The first thing that stood out for me was the book’s sometimes strident secularism. Sometimes the book seems more like a straightforward reporting of the facts, but at other points one gets the sense that religion is a disease that, unfortunately, we can’t eradicate. It was fascinating to read a book by someone who thinks that my family and I are a major problem for the future of the planet.

Secondly, like so many secular authors that write about religion, Kaufmann’s grasp of things religious was often quite tenuous. When he talked about various Muslim groups or the lives and culture of Ultra-Orthodox Jews, about whom I know almost nothing, it was hard for me to trust him completely given how badly he botched what I do know. Take this, for example:

Catholicism held out against modernist values somewhat longer, but in 1943, Pope Pius XII gave his assent to the new biblical scholarship. Later, after turbulent debate, the second Vatican Encyclical (1968) was issued by Pope Paul VI and the new liturgy went into effect on 18 October 1969. This muddied the previously hard distinction between sacred and profane, reduced the hierarchical nature of rituals and helped bring Church policy on contraception and birth control into line with the liberal practice of many modern Catholics. (pp. 22-23)

There is almost too much wrong here to enumerate. It will suffice to note that a book about how many babies religious people have seems to have no idea that the largest religious group in the world rejects contraception! (Though at one point he notes that the Vatican works with various other religious groups against certain UN family planning initiatives.)

This probably accounts for something else I found disappointing, from a personal point of view. As a Catholic, I wanted to know about Catholic demographics and Catholic rates of retention of children in the faith. Kaufmann seems blandly disinterested in Catholics outside of occasional references to the fact that Protestants used to fear renowned Catholic fertility. It is hard to imagine how one could write a book about religion and demography and not include the Catholic Church. One gets the impression that Kaufmann didn’t find us nearly as troubling as Mormons, Hutterites, the Amish, Laestadian Lutherans, Quiverfull Evangelicals, various Islamist groups or the Haredi Jews. I must confess to feeling slighted.

Now, the reader might note an ambiguity here. I have said that it was weird to read a book that considers me a problem and also that I feel slighted for not being considered enough of a problem. It is true. My feelings are ambiguous. As a religious person with too many children, I am a problem for Kaufmann, but as a Catholic, I am not. I did not get the sense from Kaufmann that he thought Catholics were good, just that they were moderate enough not to be a real threat. But I want to be a threat to Kaufmann’s secularism. His concern that religious people want to curtail the right to abortion (this was an overriding concern) should apply just as much to me as to the Mormons.

Another ambiguity I found was that Kaufmann seemed mostly concerned with “fundamentalists,” but I couldn’t tell if I was a fundamentalist or not. Sometimes he defines a fundamentalist as someone whose religion is explicitly and intentionally articulated against secularism because it arose precisely as a response to secularism. I like this definition of fundamentalism and, according to it, I am not a fundamentalist.

On the other hand, Kaufmann sometimes uses the term in a way that seems to indicate, “Anyone who is naive enough to think that their truth claims have universal value.” On such a reading I am a fundamentalist, but so is Kaufmann! This is really clear when, at the end of the book, he says some nice things about religion making people happy and notes that that is OK according to his (fundamentalist!) utilitarianism.

But, despite all these awkward bits that come from reading a work by someone who operates in an entirely different world than I do, the book was fascinating. Kaufmann has useful things to say about what kinds of religious communities spread themselves effectively by reproduction (e.g., those that rarely marry outside the group) and what kinds of effects this has on the broader culture. Furthermore, he is quite happy to admit that secularism has its warts and that secular ideologies can have consequences as dire as religious ones.

For those interested, his conclusion is that the religious will indeed inherit the earth. The earth’s population is already contracting in several areas and that contraction is spreading. By around 2085, the world’s population will be in decline. It is possible that it won’t take long for it to be in free fall given the vicious cycle nature of demography. In such a context, those groups that have more children (and manage to keep most of them in the group) will come to represent more and more of the earth’s population.

Those interested can watch a one-hour talk that Kaufmann gave on the topic here:

http://fora.tv/2010/09/05/Eric_Kaufmann_Shall_the_Religious_Inherit_the_Earth

I think it is all very fascinating. It is also ambiguous. I suspect that everyone who is honest about it is heartened to hear that there will be more people like them in the future. I am also keenly aware that many of these groups are not at all like me, even if I can’t fully trust Kaufmann’s description of them.

Finally, though Kaufmann’s dismissal of Catholicism irked me, I found myself happy to belong to a Church that is pro-natalist because it values children, not because it values empire. In the end, I wonder if we are not more of a threat to secularism because we don’t take it quite so seriously. Or, maybe better, because we refuse to fight it on its own turf.

Brett Salkeld is a doctoral student in theology at Regis College in Toronto. He is a father of two (so far) and husband of one.

Previous Post

August 2, 2011

Quote of the Day - Archbishop Jose Gomez

Next Post

August 3, 2011 Writing.

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category 2019 A Consistent Ethic of Life Aaron Weldon Abortion absurdity Abuse Scandal Academics Adoption Advent Africa agreement/disagreement with Church teaching Alexander Schmemann Alexham Alterity America Amnesty International Anarchism angels Anglicanism Animals Annual Statistics Anthony Anxietas Apocalyptic Apophatic Appalachia Aquinas Art Atheism Atonement Augustine Authority Baptism Beauty Bible biblical criticism biblical scholarship Bioethics Bishops Black Catholics Black Theology Blackadder Blogs Books Breastfeeding Brett Salkeld Buddhism Bush administration Byzantine Catholic Calvinism Canada Canon Law Capital Punishment Capitalism Caryll Houselander Catholic Blog Awards Catholic Blogging Catholic League Catholic Social Teaching Catholic Worker Movement Catholicity CFL Charity Children Chris West Christ and Culture Christian Democracy Christian Unity Christmas Christology Church Church Doctrine Church History Climate Change Cohabitation Colbert Collegiality Communion Communism Comparative Theology Competition Conferences conscience conscience rights Consequentialism Consistent Life Ethics Consumerism Contraception Contrition Conversion Converts Coptic COVID-19 Creation Critical Thinking Cross Cuba Culture Culture of Death Culture of Life Darfur David Cruz-Uribe David Wheeler-Reed Death Death Penalty Democracy Demons Desert Fathers Devil Dialogue dignity Disability Disarmament discernment Discipleship discrimination Dissent Distributism Division Doctrine Domestic Church Dorothy Day Double Effect Doubt Down syndrome Driving Early Church Easter Eastern Churches Ecclesiology Economics Economy Ecumenism Education El Salvador Election Election 2020 Ellul Embryonic Stem Cell Research Empire Energy Enlighenment Environmentalism Ephraim Radner Episcopal Church epistemology Equality Eschatology Ethics Eucharist Europe Euthanasia Evangelization Evil Evolution Excommunication F.X. Durrwell Facism Facts Fair Trade Faith Family Fashion Feddie Feminism Feminist theology Fertility Fetal Rights Fiction Film Finances First Things flags Folk Religion Food Foreign Affairs Forgiveness Frank Sheed Free Speech Freedom gay & lesbian persons Genocide George W. Bush George Weigel Gerald L. Campbell Girard/Mimetic Theory Global Warming Globalization Gnosticism Good Friday Grace Gratitude Greed Grey Cup 2009 Guadalupe Guest Post Guest Posts Gun Control Gustave Martelet Habitat for Humanity Hans Urs von Balthasar Harry Potter Hate Speech Health Health Care Healthcare Heather King Hebrew Bible Henri de Lubac Henry Karlson Herbert McCabe Heresy HHS Mandate Controversy History Holidays Holiness Holy Spirit Homiletics Homily Homosexuality Hope Hospitality How Far Can We Go? How Far Can We Go? Human Person Human Rights Humanae Vitae Humility Humor Hunger Hunting Identity Idolatry Ignacio Ellacuría Imagination Immigration In Memoriam Income Inequality Inculturation Indigenous People Individualism Inklings Intellect Interdependence Internet Interpretation Interviews Introduction Iraq War Islam Israel Jain James Alison James Martin Jazz Jesus Christ Jews Joe Biden Joe Hargrave Johann Baptist Metz John Allen John Henry Newman John Paul II John the Baptist John XXIII Jonathan Josef Pieper Joseph (the husband of Mary) Joseph Bernardin Joseph Ratzinger Josh Brumfield Journals Joy Judgment Just War Justice Kari Lundgren Karl Rahner Katerina Ivanovna Kenya Keynes Kingdom of God Kyle R. Cupp Labor Language Latin America Law Leanne Ogasawara Legion of Christ Leisure Lent Liberalism Liberation Theology Libertarianism Libya Lies Life life & dignity & responsibility of the human person Literature Little Way Liturgical music Liturgical Year Liturgy Living Simply Living Wage Local Church Lombard Lord of the Rings Louis Dupre Love M.Z. Magic Magisterium Mark DeFrancisis Mark Gordon Marriage Martin Luther Martin Luther King Jr. Martyrdom Marxism Mary Masculinity Matt Talbot Matthew Fish Matthew Levering McCain Media Memorial Day Mennonites Mental Illness mercy Michael Iafrate Middle East militarism Miroslav Volf Mitt Romney Modesty Moral Theology Morality Mormonism Morning's Minion Mother Teresa Music Muslims Natalie Nate Wildermuth Nationalism Native Americans Nature Nazis Neuhaus New Evangelization New York City News NFP nihilism Nonviolence Not Abortion Nova's Ordo Nuclear weapons Nuns Obama Occult Old Age Opus Dei Ordination ordination of women original sin Orthodoxy Oscar Romero Other Voices Pacifism Palestine Palin Papacy Papal Peace Messages Papal Social Encyclicals Particular Affections Partisanship Patriotism Paul Paul Ryan Paul VI Peace Pentimento persecution Personalism Phantastes Philosophy PKD Planned Parenthood Pluralism Poetry Policraticus Politcal Apathy Politics Poll Pope Benedict XVI Pope Francis Pope John Paul II Pope Leo XIV Population Postcolonialsim Poverty Power Prayer Preaching Predictions Predictions for 2012 President Barack Obama priestly formation & discernment Pro-Life Progress Prophetic Witness Proportionalism Public Diplomacy Public Policy Question Quotes Rachel Maddow Racism Radical Catholic Mom Radical Catholicism Raymund Schwager Real Catholic TV Real Presence Reconciliation Reginald Garrigou-Lagrange Religion religious freedom Responsibility Ressourcement Resurrection Rick Garnett Ridiculous Crap You Never Thought You'd See Robert Barron Roe v. Wade Roman Curia Rome Russia Sacraments Saints Salvation History Sam Harris Sam Rocha Same-sex Marriage Saskatchewan Roughriders Satire School of the Americas Science Scripture Seamless Garment Second Vatican Council Seeing Sex sexual violence Sexuality Sia Sin social justice Social Security Socialism Society of Jesus Sofia Loves Wisdom Solidarity Sophia soteriology Soutenus Spirituality Sports St. Dismas St. Joseph Stanley Hauerwas Statistics Stimulus Suffering Sunday Reflections Supernatural Supreme Court Symbolism Syria Taxing Technology Terrorism The State The Tea Party The Trump Administration Theological Anthropology Theology Theotokos Thomas Merton Throwaway Culture Tim Muldoon Tim Riley Tim Tebow Time Titian Tolkien Torture Toys Trade Traditionalism Transgender Transportation Transubstantiation Trinity Truth TV U.S. Affairs Uncategorized Unions unity among people who disagree US Catholicism USCCB Usury Utilitarianism Utopia Valentine's Day Vatican Vatican II Veterans Vicarious Suffering Video Violence Virgin Mary Vocations Voluntary Associations Voluntary Poverty Voting Vox Nova vox nova blog war War and Peace War Strategy Wealth Weirdness Welfare state Women Women Priests Work Woundedness Youth

Select a Month June 2026 May 2025 February 2025 January 2025 July 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 July 2023 March 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 November 2021 September 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

True or False: Moses entered the Promised Land before he died.

Select your answer to see how you score.

TRUE FALSE