Rational Faith: More working hypothesis than logical proof

Last updated on: July 14, 2016 at 12:42 pm by Leah Libresco

Rational Faith: More working hypothesis than logical proof 2016-07-14T12:42:03-04:00 Leah Libresco

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

GIRL_USES_A_MAGNIFYING_GLASS_TO_STUDY_PLANT_LIFE_IN_THE_TUNDRA_OF_THE_ROCKY_MOUNTAINS.THE_DENVER_PTA_SPONSORED_A...-NARA-_543740

Wikimedia Commons / Bill Gilette

Editors’ Note: This article is part of the Patheos Public Square on Faith and Reason. Read other perspectives here.

This month, Patheos asked bloggers to contribute to a Public Square symposium on the question “Is Faith Rational, Irrational, or Arational?” Since I used to work teaching Bayesian statistics for the Center for Applied Rationality and I’m now a statistician for FiveThirtyEight, I’m coming down firmly on the “Rational” side of this trilemma.

But “rational” may not mean what you think. You’re selling rationality short if you think of it as just comprising systems of inductive proof, like mathematics, where you start with axioms and extend yourself out cautiously, only accepting theorems that have been rigorously proven, leaving everything else as “conjecture.” If you’re asking people who adhere to different faiths to meet this level of rigor, don’t be surprised when they don’t pass your test. But this would be too high a bar for belief in almost any domain of action.

In one interview I gave after my conversion, the Christian radio host interviewing me appealed to this level of rigor and argued that atheists really should call themselves agnostics. “How can they say that they know for sure that God doesn’t exist?” he asked.

It’s true, most atheists don’t claim to know that God exists in the same way that they know, say, the law of the excluded middle, but they’re still perfectly justified in claiming the name of atheists. After all, I don’t believe that there’s life on Mercury, but I’ve never been over to the planet to check — I don’t even have relevant qualifications in the area, but it would be a lie to say I’m agnostic on the question.

A rational belief is the way you lean, based on the evidence you have (and with a bit of due diligence to make sure that the evidence you have is the evidence you need). It’s the outcome you’d bet on, if someone gave you the chance. It includes a lot of beliefs that are more working hypotheses than proofs. And it’s not too far from the scientific method.

In Arcadia (my favorite non-Shakespeare play), two of the characters are discussing a literature professor’s thinly sourced hypothesis:

Valentine: It may all prove to be true.
Hannah: It can’t prove to be true, it can only not prove to be false yet.
Valentine: Just like science.

My faith and my conversion are “just like science” in the same way. God and Catholicism turned out to be my best working hypothesis when I poked deeper and deeper into the question of what morality was and how we had access to a transcendent truth (besides math). Changing my mind wasn’t so much a choice as a recognition that my belief had shifted. I didn’t necessarily believe in God with 99% confidence, but He was my best hypothesis, and it would be a lie to pretend to be agnostic at that point.

Since converting and beginning to practice the faith, I’ve run into more small pieces of evidence, but they’re not the kind of thing I can upload to ArXiv or submit to a peer reviewed journal. I still read theology, and sometimes I run into something interesting that shores up my confidence in the coherence of the faith, but a lot of my evidence is much more circumstantial. Allowing God a space in my life, means receiving a lot of small graces, whether they come in the form of comfort, contrition, or even righteous sorrow.

These small touches wouldn’t have been enough to push me over the threshhold of belief, but they do help to root me in my faith, just as simply observing the sun rise every day doesn’t prove it will rise tomorrow, but it sure weights your belief on the question.

If you want the chance to change someone else’s mind (or to make sure you’ve given yourself the chance to notice if you’re wrong), making a rational conversion doesn’t just mean reading over Aquinas’s Five Proofs for God but about asking yourself how you’d notice if you’ve been living in the world where Catholicism is true (or Hinduism or atheism or anything else) and whether there’s anything you’d like to read or questions you’d like to ask in order to get your bearings.

You can read more about how to cultivate and chase curiosity here, and more about my conversion in Arriving at Amen

Apologetics

Conversion

Epistemology/Philosophy

Previous Post

July 6, 2016

Why I'm a Statistician and Why I'm a Catholic

Next Post

July 25, 2016 Starving Laypeople of Devotion in Church

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category 7 Quick Takes Apologetics Atheism Book Conversion Debate Tactics Debates Epistemology/Philosophy Housekeeping Ideological Turing Test Marriage Morality in Practice Parsing Catholicism Possibly Heretical Radio Reviews/Recommendations Sequence Index Spiritual Practice Uncategorized

Select a Month April 2017 March 2017 January 2017 December 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

What happened when Peter tried to walk on water?

Select your answer to see how you score.

He led other disciples out He sank when he doubted The Spirit descended upon him He ran ahead of Jesus