{"id":480,"date":"2014-11-14T09:45:55","date_gmt":"2014-11-14T14:45:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/splitthemoon\/?p=480"},"modified":"2014-11-14T10:44:52","modified_gmt":"2014-11-14T15:44:52","slug":"serial-episode-8-confirmation-bias-ftw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/splitthemoon\/2014\/11\/serial-episode-8-confirmation-bias-ftw\/","title":{"rendered":"Serial Episode 8: Confirmation Bias FTW"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

"The<\/a>

The \u201cWest Memphis Three\u201d. I once tweeted at Damien hoping to get his interest in Adnan\u2019s case. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 He never responded. Sniff.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Raise your hand if you were surprised by what Jay had to say in this week\u2019s episode. No one better have their hand raised. If you thought for an instant that \u201cMr. Your-Plea-Deal-Is-Good-Unless-You-Change-Your-Story\u201d was going to do another \u201cok I come clean\u201d when two random women show up at his door, I\u2019ve got a bridge and a mid-east peace plan to sell you. You may have been surprised, however, with how Jay was described. Or you may have been confused. His is a catalog of contradictory personality traits, from goofy to mean, from animal lover to rat-eating-frog enthusiast (sorry, you kind of can\u2019t be both \u2013 Google that ish and you\u2019ll see what I mean). Unlike Adnan, who has overwhelmingly been described in similar terms by most people who know him, Jay poses a challenge to us. Other than being identified as the odd guy out, there was little similarity between what people had to say about him. What to make of his conflicted, yet beautiful, unconventionality? Nothing. That\u2019s right. You make nothing of it. Because at this point if you really think you can assess the truth and reality of who a person is through a superficial, carefully edited and crafted, partial but maybe not impartial treatment of his (or any) character in a production, then you will forever be lost in crazy-making cognitive mazes. Is it too much of a stretch to say unless you know someone personally, you can\u2019t really know them? You can\u2019t. Trust me on this. Listeners will never be able to figure out whether Adnan is a sociopath or a nice guy, Jay is a psychopath or a victim, or Sarah is a bewildered glutton for punishment or a master weaver of addictive narrative (come on now). So let\u2019s stop pretending we can psychoanalyze the depths of the souls of these people through 30-40 minute podcasts. If you still think you\u2019re just special that way, I recommend you watch the documentaries \u201cParadise Lost<\/a>\u201c, \u201cParadise Lost 2: Revelations<\/a>\u201c, and \u201cWest of Memphis<\/a>\u201d and get back to me. A TL;DR of that experience is that you, as the consumer of a show, are at the mercy of the storytellers, second and third hand narrators, and incomplete profiles of people. The only thing you can do in such a situation is try and pin down what you can, make an assessment with a sack of salt, and then forget that assessment the minute a new tidbit of information is revealed.<\/p>\n

"*Before<\/a>

*Before you get all cranky, these are MY known knowns. Feel free to come up with your own.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This is the best I can do. I don\u2019t know Jay. I can only make a biased judgement based on the things I believe to be facts and those things people who DID know him personally can offer about him. \u00a0This is how I draw my conclusions about someone I don\u2019t actually know. \u00a0And from what I think I know, if I have to believe either Jay or Adnan, I have to go with Adnan. He\u2019s never given me a reason not to. "Screenshot<\/a> FORGET JAY, WHAT\u2019S THE DEAL WITH STEPHANIE?<\/strong> Stephanie does not want to talk. Apparently she has never wanted to talk. But in 1999, Stephanie gave statements to police and private detectives.<\/p>\n

"Stephanie's<\/a>

Stephanie\u2019s statement from March, 1999. Last name redacted.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

"Screenshot<\/a><\/p>\n

Beyond these statements, there isn\u2019t much from what we can assess Steph. Other than the fact that she went to Jay\u2019s sentencing with him, which I am comfortable construing as her support of him. Some folks find this detail telling \u2013 Steph knew Jay intimately, and she stood by him, which means she believed him, which means he was probably telling the truth. Fair enough. But equally true is that Hae knew Adnan intimately, and even after breaking up was close friends with him, which would seem to indicate she did not feel threatened by him. It\u2019s clear that Jay and Steph were very much in love, and in an almost Bollywood-ish situation. Him from the wrong side of town, her from a family that disapproved of him. They clearly loved each other very much and were together despite the odds. Which makes me think that the idea that Jay (tall, strong, stabby Jay) would tolerate any threat to Steph is not just far fetched, but ridiculous. I can\u2019t see an \u201calpha male\u201d cowering at a threat to his partner. If Adnan really did threaten Steph\u2019s life, I imagine Jay would have broken his face. It could be that Jay felt threatened though. But not by Adnan.<\/p>\n

"Trial<\/a>

Trial testimony about how Hae felt about Adnan. From someone other than Steph.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n**
** **IS THIS WHERE I LEAVE YOU BEST BUY?<\/strong> Geezus Chris. Now you tell us? In all fairness to Chris it\u2019s not like he ever got a chance to tell this story before. Because the cops never contacted him (despite Jay telling them that he had told Chris) and of course he never testified at trial. At this point, with so many versions of the tale, I\u2019m going to have to dispense with Best Buy. Not because there is evidence it happened elsewhere, but because there is no evidence of where it happened AT ALL. \u00a0Hae could have been killed at Best Buy, at the Park n Ride, at Patapsco Park, at the library, or on the moon for all it matters. The only place I can be fairly sure it did not happen is a place with cameras. There is also this, from one of Hae\u2019s best friends:<\/p>\n

"Hae's<\/a>

Hae\u2019s best friend testifying about her confusion when asked about Best Buy by the police<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n**
** **\u00a0<\/p>\n

"..testimony<\/a>

..testimony continued<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n**
** **According to this friend Best Buy was not a rendevous spot for Hae and Adnan. But there is Ja\u2019uan, a friend of Adnan\u2019s, who drew a map of where he and Adnan went to smoke pot together \u2013 in the parking of Best Buy, in the same location Jay says Adnan killed Hae (in the trial version at least).<\/p>\n

"Ja'uan's<\/a>

Ja\u2019uan\u2019s hand-drawn map of where he smoked pot with Adnan<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n**
** **So what\u2019s the truth? Here is how I interpret it. Maybe Adnan went there to smoke pot but not to have sex. Maybe that location was a place where one could go if one wanted to buy pot. Maybe it was a place Jay went to sell and smoke pot, and Jay knew that Adnan went there to smoke pot too so he just offered a location where Adnan was known to go every so often \u2013 but a location that Jay first confirmed definitely did not have cameras. AN ABOVE AVERAGE INVESTIGATION<\/strong> Sarah, I\u2019m with you on this one. I got rather pouty and pissy when Detective Trainum (and how) said, \u201cRather than trying to get to the truth, what you\u2019re trying to do is build your case, and make it the strongest case possible\u201d. Having seen enough documentaries on police corruption, poor investigations, and wrongful convictions (and er knowing what happened in Adnan\u2019s case) to hold a healthy skepticism towards law enforcement investigations, I should have guessed that this the standard M.O. But it still took my breath away to hear him say that getting at the truth was not the point of a criminal investigation. WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SAYING IT WAS AN ABOVE AVERAGE INVESTIGATION. It took me a while to be able to hold those two thoughts in my mind at the same time, until I realized what he meant was this: it was an above average investigation in confirming their presupposed theory. In other words, cops could have a theory, but their investigation to support that theory is crappy. Here, they had a theory, and then did a stellar job in investigating\u00a0just enough<\/em> to support it. Slow clap, dear public servants. See, if they were not cops, but instead truth-seekers, their investigation might have included the following:<\/p>\n

\nSearching Jay\u2019s residence<\/li>\nTesting Jay\u2019s clothing, shoes, carpets, bedding, etc. for evidence<\/li>\nContacting Chris and Will, both of whom Jay mentioned to them during his statements<\/li>\nDNA testing EVERYTHING from the crime scene<\/li>\nConfirming if there was actually a payphone at Best Buy<\/li>\nGetting the records for said payphone<\/li>\nGetting the records for everyone else\u2019s phone calls (ie did Don page Hae after she disappeared? Who knows, who cares?)<\/li>\nTracking down every damn incoming call on Adnan\u2019s phone<\/li>\nLooking for camera evidence from the library\/school after Adnan told them he was there until after track<\/li>\nRemotely attempting to reconcile the fact that Jay and Jenn both say he got \u201cthe phone call\u201d around 3:45pm but their official timeline says it was at 2:36pm<\/li>\nRealizing the cell phone tower evidence was crap because even if you believed Jay\u2019s final version of the story, the records only matched 4 out of 14 tower pings \u2013 a pretty dismal if you\u2019re going to rely on it as evidence of a murder<\/li>\nFailing to ask people about their whereabouts until looooong after January 13th<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n***
** ***\u00a0<\/p>\n

"Forensic<\/a>

Forensic guy testifying about stain found on tshirt in the car<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

"Didn't<\/a>

Didn\u2019t match those folks? That\u2019s cool, no need to try anyone else<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n***
** ***\u00a0<\/p>\n

"Don't<\/a>

Don\u2019t work too hard now<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n***
** ***\u00a0<\/p>\n

"Testimony<\/a>

Testimony of close school friend of Hae and Adnan at the first trial. Wasn\u2019t questioned till after Adnan\u2019s arrest.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n***
** ***\u00a0<\/p>\n

"Likely<\/a>

Likely to be manual\u2026BUT. Oh look a rope at the scene. No need to test it.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n***
** ***I can, and do, make the argument that it was also Gutierrez\u2019s job to uncover some of these things (I cannot wait for that episode \u2013 and whether it comes or not, I will do a write-up on that disaster of a defense, I promise). But essscuuuse me for feeling strongly that cops should be focused on finding out the TRUTH. Not on what is convenient for them to get a conviction.<\/p>\n

"That's<\/a>***
** That\u2019s what I call a murder investigation that didn\u2019t care about the truth and didn\u2019t try hard enough<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
** TO BE CONTINUED\u2026<\/strong> There is plenty more I want to write about here in response to the episode, from the sweet juror who was surprised that Jay got no jail time to the juror who interpreted Adnan\u2019s failure to take the stand precisely as she had been instructed by the judge not to \u2013 but will come to that later. I am both assuming and hoping Serial delves into the actual trial\/s, Adnan\u2019s timeline and whereabouts, and Gutierrez\u2019s handling of the case deeper, but if it doesn\u2019t happen, you can rest assured I will. For now my takeaway from this episode is this \u2013 its not just cops who work with a confirmation bias. It\u2019s all of us. And the only way to overcome that bias is to get as thorough an investigation possible, as many facts on the table as are humanly possible, before drawing conclusions. But that wasn\u2019t done in this case, and apparently isn\u2019t done in most cases. And it\u2019s how and why the system failed Adnan.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
** ***For now my takeaway from this episode is this – its not just cops who work with a confirmation bias. It’s all of us. And the only way to overcome that bias is to get as thorough an investigation possible, as many facts on the table as are humanly possible, before drawing conclusions. But that wasn’t done in this case, and apparently isn’t done in most cases. And it’s how and why the system fails people like Adnan. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1704,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adnan-syed","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nSerial Episode 8: Confirmation Bias FTW<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For now my takeaway from this episode is this - its not just cops who work with a confirmation bias. It's all of us. 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