The lethal cynicism of Republican arithmetic

Last updated on: December 5, 2021 at 5:00 pm by Fred Clark

The lethal cynicism of Republican arithmetic 2021-12-05T11:03:51-05:00 Fred Clark

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

To fully appreciate the stark, ugly cynicism of the 21st-century Republican Party, you have to consider the math behind stories like this one: “Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates.”

Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. …

People living in counties that went 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.7 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher COVID-19 mortality rates.

The trend was robust, even when controlling for age, which is the primary demographic risk of COVID-19 mortality. The data also reveal a major contributing factor to the death rate difference: The higher the vote share for Trump, the lower the vaccination rate.

The analysis only looked at the geographic location of COVID-19 deaths. The exact political views of each person taken by the disease remains unknowable. But the strength of the association, combined with polling information about vaccination, strongly suggests that Republicans are being disproportionately affected.

This was an entirely predictable and entirely expected consequence of the decision by Republican Party leaders to politicize public health, vaccination, and the reality of the pandemic itself. Those leaders themselves are not at greater risk of illness and death because they are, personally and privately, fully vaccinated and abiding by all the prudent precautions they’re daily encouraging their followers and supporters to ignore.

Republican Party leaders are betting that the political advantage of turning the noncontroversial matter of common-sense public health into a hot-button wedge issue will outweigh the disadvantage this strategy involves. They are, in other words, doing the arithmetic of cost-benefit analysis. The electoral benefit, they imagine, is that anti-vaccination propaganda will fire up the base, ensuring a reliable high turnout of their most loyal voters. The cost, of course, is that some percentage of those voters won’t be able to vote in the next election because they’ll be dead.

But the Republican Party has crunched the numbers here and concluded that the likely upside outweighs the inevitable downside — that the increase in voter enthusiasm and intensity prompted by their anti-vaxx crusade adds up to a greater effect than the decrease in the number of still-living Republicans able to cast votes.

They know that what they’re doing will kill tens of thousands of their own party members, but they’re calculating that the missing votes of all those dead Republicans won’t outweigh the potential advantage of increased anger and resentment that can be channeled into electoral victory and/or chaotic gridlock. And the only concern in this calculation — the only value ascribed to the lives and deaths of their own supporters — is this relative plus-or-minus with regard to their own personal political advantage.

If covid were somewhat deadlier, killing a slightly higher percentage of Republicans misled by the party’s anti-vax propaganda, the numbers might still work out in what they view as their favor. And even then people like Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy and Tucker Carlson would say, “How many dead? That’s still acceptable — let’s keep doing this.”

We can surmise, in theory, that the emergence of a far-deadlier strain of covid might produce a death rate among Republican voters that Republican leaders would calculate as too costly. And at that point, in theory, Cruz, McConnell, McCarthy, et. al., might seek some way to pivot back toward support for common-sense public health measures and vaccination campaigns. But from their perspective, this would not be due to the loss of lives, only to the potential loss of votes.

Uncategorized

LaPeste

Previous Post

December 5, 2021

Postcards from the class & culture wars (12.5.21)

Next Post

December 10, 2021 A dishonest life ends in an honest death

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category class warfare evangelicals Iraq Left Behind Mammon music Uncategorized

Select a Month October 2026 September 2026 August 2026 July 2026 June 2026 May 2026 April 2026 March 2026 January 2026 December 2025 November 2025 October 2025 September 2025 August 2025 July 2025 June 2025 May 2025 April 2025 March 2025 February 2025 January 2025 December 2024 November 2024 October 2024 September 2024 August 2024 July 2024 June 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 June 2023 May 2023 April 2023 March 2023 February 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 March 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

What did Jesus use to wash the disciples’ feet?

Select your answer to see how you score.

A scroll His robe A cup and sponge A towel and basin