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Real Life Conclave: Who Will Succeed Pope Francis?

Real Life Conclave: Who Will Succeed Pope Francis?

Last updated on: April 21, 2025 at 8:37 pm by James F. McGrath

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Real Life Conclave: Who Will Succeed Pope Francis? 2025-04-21T20:37:23-04:00 James F. McGrath

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Most of us who watched the movie Conclave not long ago did not expect that the next real life conclave would be happening so soon. I saw the movie twice, watching it once because it was so highly recommended by friends, and then watching it again with my wife after recommending it to her. I didn’t expect the movie to be as engaging as it was given its overall lack of sensationalism. Certainly it offered drama that cannot be said to be typical of any given conclave. But for the most part, the only thing that was radically unexpected was the powerful ending. I won’t discuss that ending for the sake of those who have not seen it. But before the real life conclave happens, you’ll want to watch the movie.

Real Life Conclave

So now that the sad news about the death of Pope Francis has had time to circulate, it is impossible not to ask what comes next. Who will be the next pope?

Many media outlets are commenting on this, listing promising candidates.

Given what we have seen on the national and international scene in recent years, I suspect that one thing is almost guaranteed. The next pope will be more conservative than Francis was.

Not that there aren’t cardinals that would continue leading the church in a manner more continuous with Francis. There certainly are.

The question is whether the voting cardinals will want that as a group. Whether they do or do not, leaders are not always in tune with where people are at.

Disconnect with Ordinary Catholics?

Of course, historically, it was expected that people would line up behind their religious leaders and follow their teachings (or at least pretend to). Today, that is far from the case. I grew up in the Catholic Church, and even as long ago as the 1970s I feel as though the assumption was that Catholics should support the stances of the church, or at least acknowledge their status as not very good Catholics.

Today, Catholics in the United States at least feel free to openly disagree with official church policies and yet at the same time identify proudly as Roman Catholic.

As the nature of religious identity continues to shift, even if a conservative pope follows Francis, what will that mean for the enormous number of young Catholics who will resent and openly defy leaders who try to roll back the increased respect towards LGBTQ+ people, towards women as potential leaders, and towards survivors of abuse at the hands of clergy.

In the past, there were undoubtedly plenty who in practice defied the church’s teaching on birth control, abortion, same sex relationships, and many other subjects.

What is different now is that the younger generation may not do so while continuing to frequent Catholic churches and give to support it.

Predicting the Papacy?

All this to say that I think there is room to predict what is likely in terms of the kind of figure who will be elected pope, even if no one can be confident about which such individual will be chosen.

There is less room for confidence about what the election of any given pope will mean for the institution as a whole.

If the next pope is more conservative, as seems likely, that in and of itself will not necessarily turn off younger and more liberal Catholics.

If the new pope seems to lack anything close to Francis’ kindness and empathy, on the other hand, that may lead some to turn away from the church altogether. Francis was remarkable for his willingness to draw near to the poor and marginalized, his respect for those historically ostracized by the church as human beings. The odds are his successor won’t be precisely like him in this regard. The question is how different he can be and still hold on to the support of those who found Francis to be a breath of fresh air, a hopeful sign of what might lie ahead for the Roman Catholic Church in the future.

Gratitude for Pope Francis

Looking back, I did not blog about Pope Francis all that often over the years. As the real life conclave draws near, in addition to watching the movie if you haven’t already, revisiting past pieces about Francis may be worthwhile. Although I spent a year immersed in a project about John the Baptist, I had forgotten that I previously shared a cartoon about Francis as a modern-day John the Baptist.

The point was not that he is preparing the way for one greater than himself, but that he stands in the wilderness of our time and calls people to repent.

I also hadn’t blogged about the movie, despite enjoying it immensely and highly recommending it. This historical moment seemed to call for me to finally do so.

Do you feel that you have a sense of the direction things are heading for the Catholic Church and the papacy? If so, what do you see on the horizon? What do you hope for? What do you fear may happen?

I am grateful for the way that Francis sought to make compassion and kindness paramount. I am grateful that, even as he struggled with illness towards the end of his life, he rebuked and challenged JD Vance who claims to be Catholic and yet stands at odds with the concerns of the historic church as well as the values of paramount importance to the now sadly deceased pontiff.

May whoever succeeds him lead with similar courage, compassion, and kindness.

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