Nate Silver On Why Iowa Matters for Trump & Sanders

Last updated on: February 1, 2016 at 9:38 am by Tim Suttle

Nate Silver On Why Iowa Matters for Trump & Sanders 2016-02-01T09:38:39-07:00 Tim Suttle

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

Why should just a few hundred thousand voters taking part in a bizarre caucusing ritual in a demographically unrepresentative state have such a massive impact on who runs for president? It seems pretty shady, but that’s a whole ‘nother question. This time around Iowa will probably have a big impact on the campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Nate Silver cited five reasons on his blog today. Here’s a synopsis of what he said:

1.
Iowa results will dominate news cycles for weeks. The tone of that coverage could sway a large swath of voters toward the scrappy upstarts. Trump lives and dies by dominating news cycles and manipulating coverage. Nobody wields press coverage like a weapon as well as the Donald. The press still doesn’t love Sanders, but a surprise win over Clinton would force the press to begin taking him more seriously.

2.
There’s room on the bandwagon. With much of the Democratic electorate just beginning to feel the Bern a showing within two percentage points of Clinton would be a press boon. While Clinton remains quite electable, she’s still not well liked. Sanders has the opposite problem. He’s incredibly likable, but electable? He’ll have to begin to see an Obama-like groundswell soon. Trump still has to convince Republicans that he can actually win a general election.

3.
Iowa will cement opinion among party elites. The unknown drives party power-brokers nuts. They really want a clear front runner to emerge, and they want to be as early to that party as they can be. Nothing’s worse than backing the wrong horse, though. So post-Iowa handshakes between Republican big-wigs and Trump may be forthcoming… unless he bombs. Sanders will not likely see a huge bump in endorsements from a strong showing in Iowa.

4.
Iowa will weed out the posers. Again this benefits Trump, who’s decision to skip the last debate has made the other candidates seem small. Those who don’t have the money to go the distance will have to cash it in. O’Malley is actually very important to Sanders, since he siphons off some of the “I just don’t like Hillary” vote.

5.
Iowa matters because it’s the first concrete test of whether pollsters are on track or not. This matters most for Sanders, who has gone from 29 points down in Iowa to within the margin of error in many polls. The moment of truth is here. An extremely strong showing by Clinton in Iowa–say an 8-10 point win over Sanders–would be incredibly hard to overcome. Nobody really knows if Trumps polling numbers are soft, but it seems as though the suspicion is that they are, mostly likely the result of Trump being the candidate most likely to be over-hyped.

Uncategorized

Bernie Sanders

Donald Trump

Election 2016 Election

Previous Post

January 29, 2016

Surely Religious Voters Aren't Falling for Trump's Routine?

Next Post

February 3, 2016 Franklin Graham and the Pain of Being the Son of a Great Father

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category abortion corruption Donald Trump elections Empire Entertainment Ezra Klein ideology Justice Lacan politics race Sports Ta-Nehisi Coates Uncategorized

Select a Month September 2026 March 2026 September 2025 March 2025 June 2024 January 2024 December 2023 May 2023 February 2023 October 2022 April 2022 March 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 September 2020 July 2020 June 2020 March 2020 September 2019 July 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 August 2010 July 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

What city is the headquarters of the Roman Catholic Church?

Select your answer to see how you score.

Rome Vatican City Florence Jerusalem