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My Protest Vote – A Cautionary Tale

My Protest Vote – A Cautionary Tale

Last updated on: September 22, 2024 at 3:00 am by John Beckett

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My Protest Vote – A Cautionary Tale 2024-09-21T14:50:55-06:00 John Beckett

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It seems impossibly early, but voting in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election has started. Virginia, Minnesota, and South Dakota have either opened early voting locations or are accepting mail-in ballots. Most (though not all) states have some form of early voting or vote by mail. Texas has two weeks of early voting beginning October 21.

However you vote, I encourage you to vote as early as you can, especially if you vote by mail. If nothing else, it insures you won’t keep putting it off until the last minute and then have an emergency on Election Day. This is too important to skip.

[No, this isn’t “the most important election of our lifetime.” That was 2016. We chose poorly. But it’s still pretty damn important.]

Regular readers will not be surprised to hear that I’m voting for Kamala Harris. She was my second choice in the 2020 primary (after Elizabeth Warren – I’m a policy geek too). She’s done fine as Vice President – though Vice Presidents don’t do much, as virtually every VP since John Adams has complained. I’m incredibly impressed with the way she’s put a strong campaign together after Joe Biden dropped out very late in the process. Her performance in the debate was outstanding – any questions about her ability to think and speak on her feet are gone. I would vote for Kamala Harris even if the Republicans were offering a reasonable alternative, which they aren’t.

This post is not directed at “undecided” voters. At this point I can’t imagine there are any voters who are truly undecided… though I know there are some principled conservatives who are trying to get comfortable with voting for Harris because while they don’t like her policies, they know Trump is completely unsuited for the office of the President and is a genuine threat to freedom and democracy.

[Think I’m exaggerating? “I won’t be a dictator except for Day One” … “you won’t have to vote anymore” … “termination of all rules… even those found in the Constitution” and on and on and on, and that’s in addition to trying to overturn the 2020 election, which he is still under indictment for in Georgia, and in addition to Project 2025, which he’s trying to distance himself from because it’s so unpopular, even though many of its authors served in his administration and would serve in a second Trump administration, and in addition to his own Agenda 47 which has considerable overlap with Project 2025.]

Trump’s civil and criminal convictions would disqualify any other candidate. Others in both parties have dropped out for far less – or not dropped out and been solidly defeated. But there is a significant minority in this country that likes Trump and likes the way he governed, and they will vote for him no matter what.

The Electoral College makes this election closer than it should be

If not for the outdated and undemocratic Electoral College this wouldn’t be a problem. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 3 million, but lost because she lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by razor-thin margins. Joe Biden won the 2020 popular vote by 7 million and when all the votes were counted easily won the Electoral College, but several states could have gone the other way and changed the final outcome. Kamala Harris will win the popular vote this year, but the Electoral vote is far less certain.

[Yes, we should get rid of the Electoral College. No, we won’t, because a constitutional amendment requires approval of three-fourths of state legislatures, and over half of state legislatures are controlled by Republicans, who want to maintain the unfair advantage the Electoral College gives them. Arguing about the Electoral College during a Presidential election is counterproductive.]

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is a clear, binary choice. Either Kamala Harris will be President on January 20, 2025, or Donald Trump will be President. Barring an unexpected death, there is no third alternative.

I have friends who don’t like either candidate and are considering voting for someone else. These are the people I want to address in this post. And I want to do that by telling the story of my own protest vote and what I learned from it.

I voted for Gary Johnson in 2012

I was a strong Barack Obama supporter in 2008. I voted for him in the primary. At the time, the Texas Democratic Party split its delegates based not just on the election, but also on a separate caucus. After the primary I spent an evening caucusing for Obama.

I was not pleased with his first term. Too many of his decisions made it seem like the third term of George W. Bush. I was especially unhappy that with clear majorities in the House and Senate during in 2009 and 2010, the best he could deliver on health care was the Affordable Care Act. Which, to be clear, is an improvement over what we had before, but still leaves people tied to employer health insurance and has no public option (i.e. – Medicare For All).

I wanted to send a message to Obama and the Democrats. I knew Mitt Romney was going to carry Texas. And so I voted for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate.

On the political spectrum I am far more socialist than libertarian. But I agree with most libertarian policies on social issues, and I think it would be good for the country to have a functional Libertarian Party. I thought that perhaps my vote could help the Libertarian Party grow.

[There have never been three viable parties at the national level in the United States and there never will be – our winner-take-all system makes it impossible. If you want to get rid of the two party system, push for ranked choice voting at the state level and eventually at the national level. And push for anti-gerrymandering laws where ever you can.]

Gary Johnson had served two terms as Governor of New Mexico – he knew how government worked. And by all accounts, he’s a good person. If by some miraculous chance he actually won, it wouldn’t be a total disaster.

My vote accomplished absolutely nothing

You know what happened. Romney carried Texas, but Obama easily won re-election – and then got even less done when the Republicans took the Senate. Gary Johnson got 1% of the popular vote and zero electoral votes. Any “message” I and others like me tried to send was drowned out by the 98% of voters who voted for either Obama or Romney.

As for growing the Libertarian Party, Johnson got 3.3% of popular votes in 2016 but didn’t come close to winning any electoral votes. In 2020 Jo Jorgensen got 1.1%, and this year the party struggled to nominate any candidate. They settled on Chase Oliver, who seems to be a decent person but has never won an election for anything, and they allowed Donald Trump to speak at their convention.

[I feel for my Libertarian friends who are trying to build a movement but are having to deal with people who are unwilling to do the hard work of building a viable political party from the ground up.]

Twelve years later, the results of my protest vote are clear: nothing. I accomplished absolutely nothing.

More states are in play this time, and they could go either way

You can argue that voting for Obama also would have accomplished nothing. In 2012, you might have been right. In 2024 that’s a dangerous proposition.

The people who see Texas as a backwards red state don’t know what they’re talking about. Texas is blue cities surrounded by red suburbs and rural areas. And while I’ve heard “Texas is going to turn purple” ever since I got here in 2001, it is moving in that direction. Obama got 41% of the vote in 2012. Hillary got 43% in 2016. Biden got 46% in 2020. This year? Who knows. A recent poll shows Colin Allred 1 point ahead of Ted Cruz in the U.S. Senate race. Reproductive rights are a key issue in this election, and if enough people turn out to replace a radical anti-choice Republican with a moderate pro-choice Democrat, they could carry Texas for Harris.

If I had to bet a meaningful-to-me sum of money, I’d still bet that Trump will carry Texas. But it’s not inconceivable that Harris could win Texas, and if she does it’s all over for Trump. The same thing could happen in Florida.

And also, the reverse could happen in Georgia (where Trump is already trying to interfere with the election count, again), Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or any of the other states Biden won by close margins. If people get complacent and don’t show up, Trump could take those states back. Every vote matters not just in the swing states, but also in the states that are close to becoming swing states.

Even if you live in Wyoming or Alabama – or in California or New York – every vote for Kamala Harris adds to the hopefully overwhelming popular vote total that will tell Republicans to never, ever nominate Trump or anyone like him again. Meanwhile, a vote for a third party in those states will be drowned out.

There are only two possibilities: which one is best, or least worst?

I enthusiastically support Kamala Harris. I also understand that some of my friends aren’t so enthusiastic about her. But come January 20, either Kamala Harris will be President or Donald Trump will be President.

Whose leadership do you want to live under for the next four years?

Which party’s control make it more likely that the issues you’re concerned about will be addressed, more or less, eventually if not right away?

Whose leadership will be better for the most vulnerable people in our society. Maybe you’ll be just fine under Trump, but many of your friends won’t.

As for me, I cast a protest vote in 2012 – it accomplished nothing. I won’t make that mistake again.

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