Do we need immigrants?

Last updated on: February 5, 2018 at 11:00 am by Jane the Actuary

Do we need immigrants? 2018-02-05T11:00:43-06:00 Jane the Actuary

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

In my twitter feed this morning:

if you think robust immigration is necessary for growth, Russia is bad, the FBI is good, democratic norms should be respected you'll need to leave the GOP or the GOP will need to rid itself of virtually all its elected leaders

— Jen 'now @jenrubin9' Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) February 3, 2018

which got me to thinking about her claim, “robust immigration is necessary for growth”:

In the first place, I suspect, though admittedly without digging out the data today, that what’s being claimed as “immigrants cause economic growth” is really “a growing economy is a magnet for immigrants”; in other words, that the causation runs in the other direction. In a recent column, David Brooks claimed,

About 500 counties, mostly in metro areas, have embraced diversity — attracting immigrants and supporting candidates who favor immigration. About 2,600 counties, mostly in rural areas, have not attracted immigrants, and they tend to elect candidates who oppose immigration and diversity.

. . . Between 2014 and 2016 the counties that embrace diversity accounted for 72 percent of the nation’s increased economic output and two-thirds of the new jobs. The approximately 85 percent of counties that support restrictionists like Donald Trump accounted for a measly 28 percent of the growth.

Never mind that the math is goofy because not all counties have equivalent population, and, as we all saw from those maps of votes for Trump vs. Clinton by congressional district, there are enough sparsely populated, pro-Trump areas as to make it visually appear as if Trump won the majority of the country, when the loss of the votes in the densely populated urban areas produced a very close vote instead.

But beyond that — well, consider Detroit. Detroit’s boosters are very eager to welcome immigrants — they celebrate their positive contributions and, indeed, the greater Detroit area, especially Dearborn and Hamtramck, is a popular destination for Arabs. But the jobs which, elsewhere, are filled by immigrants, are filled in the Detroit area by poor Detroiters, taking buses out to the suburbs. The immigrants are not coming because there is no “pull factor.”

Other claims of “economic growth” really seem to be the trivial statement that, the more people there are living and working in a given locality, the higher its total GDP will be.

That’s the claim made, for instance, in the New York Times, when Ruchir Sharma argued bluntly that economic growth comes directly from population growth, and that America therefore needs immigrants in order to grow its population, and, consequently, its GDP.

Since 2005, per capita gross domestic product has grown on average by 0.6 percent a year in the United States, exactly the same rate as in Japan and virtually the same rate as in the 19 nations of the eurozone. In other words, if it weren’t for the boost from babies and immigrants, the United States economy would look much like those supposed laggards, Europe and Japan.

And, when you look at the World Bank’s charts on the subject, it doesn’t really seem obvious to me that low-immigration countries such as Korea and Japan are mired in stagnation or decline.

Yet it’s considered an established fact that immigrants boost the economy because they have more energy, entrepreneurship, vitality, drive, determination, grit, and so on. Here’s Kristie de Peña at Real Clear Policy last year:

Countries with higher levels of immigration do better than those that close their borders. The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Canada take in the most immigrants worldwide and have the strongest economies. By comparison, even historically wealthy countries such as Japan have been struggling for nearly a decade with a steadily declining workforce and an aging population because they do not accept immigrants.

In fact, according to the World Bank charts, Japan’s GDP per capita continues to increase.

What’s more, to claim, “robust immigration is necessary for growth,” pretty much has a corollary: countries without “robust immigration” cannot grow. Which further says that countries which are experiencing high levels of emigration will be doomed to stagnation, even though they are precisely the countries which urgently need growth, to lift themselves out of poverty. Does this make any sense? Why bother with development, then? Why not just say that these sh**hole countries are nothing but people-farms, forever doomed to poverty.

Of course, there’s a toned-down version of the pro-immigration argument. Either immigrants are meant to remedy the decline in population because we otherwise won’t have enough workers to fund the care the elderly need, or developed-world societies are too complacent and need immigrants to remedy the complacency.

But the latest Pew forecast predicts an increase in population of over 1/3 by 2065, from 324 to 441 million, based on current immigration patterns. Is this the right amount of growth? Too much? Too little? Is there an end point to population growth? It seems to have become taboo to ask this.

Image: By Lewis W. Hine(Life time: 1874-1940) – Original publication: Photo-studyImmediate source: Brooklyn Museum, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=51292180

Uncategorized

immigration

Previous Post

February 2, 2018

Why I object to unconditional "Dream" legalization

Next Post

February 4, 2018 Should we take in the Rohingya?

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category Actuarial/Retirement Issues Politics Uncategorized

Select a Month September 2026 August 2026 July 2026 June 2026 April 2026 March 2026 February 2026 January 2026 December 2025 November 2025 October 2025 July 2025 June 2025 May 2025 April 2025 March 2025 February 2025 January 2025 December 2024 November 2024 October 2024 September 2024 August 2024 July 2024 June 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 December 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 August 2021 June 2021 April 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

In the last days, I will pour out my Spirit on all people. Your sons and daughters will do what?

Select your answer to see how you score.

Rejoice Sing Worship Prophesy