What will life be like . . . in the year 2000?

Last updated on: December 14, 2017 at 11:11 am by Jane the Actuary

What will life be like . . . in the year 2000? 2017-12-14T11:11:19-06:00 Jane the Actuary

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

FullSizeRender (13)

This is it!

The book you’ve been waiting for, forecasting 33 years into the future —

from the vantage point of 1967, two years before I was born.

This is a book that I read a number of years ago, back I suppose in days before the local library diligently de-accessioned everything that was old. In the meantime, I lost sight of it, but then a reference to it passed through my twitter feed, and I splurged and spent $10 plus shipping to buy it from an online used book site.

It is absolutely fascinating. To be sure, it’s a bit difficult, in some of its predictions, to really think about, “how much has changed since 2000?” in judging how close or far they came. And they have a long list of items that they think will have been invented by 2000, including “relatively effective weight control,” and “some control of weather and/or climate,” but some of their predictions are very hesitant: there may be “shared time” computers which might possibly have interconnection, and there might possibly be “two-way pocket phones” but it’s more likely there’d just be pagers.

But here’s the table I want to share with you:

There are multiple subsequent tables estimating GDP in various countries in 1967 dollars, which makes for a lot of work, to dig up actual 2000 GDPs and back into the 1967-dollar equivalent for comparison. But this table itself is fascinating.

The U.K. is classified in the same grouping as the Soviet Union, as a laggard compared to the U.S., West Germany, and Scandinavia!

North Korea and South Korea are in the same economic grouping!

Nigeria is the one black-governed African country singled out as economically on par with China and India!

The oil rich countries don’t even show up here except as a preindustrial “Rest of Africa”!

Of course, in one respect, there’s nothing to be learned from a book which extrapolates from the world of 1967. There was no inkling that Islamic fundamentalism would be an issue, there was an expectation that the Soviet Union would remain communist but diminish as a threat, and allow its Warsaw Pact vassal states some independence. At the same time, West Germany would reappear, if not as a military threat than as a threatening economic and foreign policy power. East Germany would prosper economically to a moderate degree, and at the same time, would be appealing to young West Germans as a “true” heir to Prussian austerity and discipline. There’s a long section on nuclear war which I haven’t read. And the book precedes worries about natural resource depletion or overpopulation.

But to me the fascination of the book is that this forecast of the future, now the past, demonstrates in its own way how unknowable the future is. The book creates what it calls “surprise-free projections,” which don’t mean that you can rely on these projections and you won’t be surprised in the future, but that these projections were believed to be a valid forecast assuming there are no surprises. And of course there were surprises.

In the same way, too, there are now plenty of books with forecasts — generally gloomy ones: deaths due to overpopulation, depletion of resources, and climate change. Robots taking over our jobs and perhaps even costing us our lives. Or, alternatively, Europe becoming Islamic, and America chock-full of fatherless children.

But will the next 50 years be any more predictable than the last 50 were?

Uncategorized

futurism

Previous Post

December 13, 2017

Is there a secularism tipping point?

Next Post

December 14, 2017 Enough with the Net Neutrality Chicken Littles!

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category Actuarial/Retirement Issues Politics Uncategorized

Select a Month September 2026 August 2026 July 2026 June 2026 April 2026 March 2026 February 2026 January 2026 December 2025 November 2025 October 2025 July 2025 June 2025 May 2025 April 2025 March 2025 February 2025 January 2025 December 2024 November 2024 October 2024 September 2024 August 2024 July 2024 June 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 December 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 August 2021 June 2021 April 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

What is the largest Christian denomination in the world?

Select your answer to see how you score.

Orthodox Catholic Lutheran Protestant