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Fact-checking the fact-checkers

Fact-checking the fact-checkers

Last updated on: March 1, 2017 at 9:46 am by Jane the Actuary

Fact-checking the fact-checkers 2017-03-01T09:46:16-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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5. His budget plan will offer “one of the largest increases in national defense spending in American history.”

The AP claims,

Three times in recent years, Congress raised defense budgets by larger percentages than the $54 billion, or 10 percent, increase that Trump proposes. The base defense budget grew by $41 billion, or 14.3 percent, in 2002; by $37 billion, or 11.3 percent, in 2003, and by $47 billion, or 10.9 percent, in 2008, according to Defense Department figures.

Of course, you can debate whether it’s fair to require Trump’s claim to be accurate in percentage claims as well as total (unadjusted for inflation) dollars, but I’ll just leave this here.

6. “Since my election, Ford, Fiat-Chrysler, General Motors, Sprint, Softbank, Lockheed, Intel, Walmart and many others have announced that they will invest billions of dollars in the United States and will create tens of thousands of new American jobs.”

The AP retorts that in some cases, these projects were already underway and that, in any case, we don’t have a full monthly jobs report for the period since Trump’s inauguration yet. But that doesn’t get to the issue of whether there has been any shift in corporate decision-making in terms of on-shoring or off-shoring its jobs. If I could remember where I’d read it, I’d share with you an article saying that there is a “herd mentality” to this sort of decision, and that it can make a meaningful difference for companies to perceive that employing American workers will be good for their corporate image (in the same way as Corporate Social Responsibility is such a buzzword).

7. “We will stop the drugs from pouring into our country and poisoning our youth — and we will expand treatment for those who have become so badly addicted.”

We don’t know how Trump intends to do this (new federal programs or existing programs?) but the AP speculatively says that Trump would cut treatment options if he kills Obamacare and the Medicaid expansion. (Never mind that it was the open-ended Medicaid system that paid for all these opiods in the first place.) Admittedly, Trump probably doesn’t have any plan in mind here, either.

8. “According to data provided by the Department of Justice, the vast majority of individuals convicted for terrorism-related offenses since 9/11 came here from outside of our country. We have seen the attacks at home — from Boston to San Bernardino to the Pentagon and yes, even the World Trade Center.”

The AP responds, “It’s unclear what Justice Department data he’s citing” and then continues by claiming that Trump is wrong, that most terrorists are home-grown. Here a PJ Media dug out the facts, and cites a report that says,

Based on open-source research conducted on a list provided by the Department of Justice, the Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest has determined that at least 380 of the 580 individuals convicted of terrorism or terrorism-related offenses between September 11, 2001 and December 31, 2014, were born abroad.

What’s more, the AP article cites the problem of individuals in America being inspired by ISIS, and says, “The Justice Department has prosecuted scores of IS-related cases since 2014, and many of the defendants are U.S. citizens.” — language that seems to suggest that if “many” are U.S. citizens, then the majority may not be, and in any case, doesn’t address at all the degree to which these people are foreign or US-born.

9. “Obamacare is collapsing … imploding Obamacare disaster.”

The AP counters, “There are problems with the 2010 health care law, but whether it’s collapsing is hotly disputed.”

Here, to a certain degree, it’s a matter of definition. What is Obamacare? Its defenders say that every new program or requirement instituted as a part of the ACA is Obamacare, this includes the Medicaid expansion. To its opponents, “Obamacare” is effectively a subset of ACA legal changes — it refers specifically to the new program of exchange-based health insurance plans. And no one worries about the collapse of Medicaid (just its growing cost), but the failures of the “co-ops” and the departures of significant numbers of health insurance providers from the exchanges in various locations, is a real worry. For individuals who are dealing with the loss of insurer choice and narrow networks in their exchange enrollment, it is pretty irrelevant that others are happy with their Medicaid plans.

Finally, here’s a “dog that didn’t bark” item: I was pretty much expecting to see Trump’s statement that Harley motorcycles face tariffs as high as 100% when trying to export overseas, included in this list. True, I figured it would be along the lines of “technically true but false in the big picture” but it didn’t get a mention at all. Apparently, India does, indeed, impose a 100% tariff.

Image: not the Trump speech. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADonald_Trump_(8567813820)_(2).jpg; By Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (Donald Trump) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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