Sometimes wildly improbably things happen. The Cubs’ win isn’t one of them.

Last updated on: November 6, 2016 at 6:57 pm by Jane the Actuary

Sometimes wildly improbably things happen. The Cubs’ win isn’t one of them. 2016-11-06T18:57:23-06:00 Jane the Actuary

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

Everyone’s celebrating the Cubs victory — the underdog team, against all odds winning the World Series for the first time in 108 years. And taken in isolation, that is extraordinary, to have been the underdog year after year, and now, in 2016, to emerge from that “lovable loser” status to win the World Series. It’s proof that anything can happen, that impossible dreams can come true, and seen as percursor or metaphor, or somehow connected to our very unexpected 2016 election.

Except that there were reasons why the Cubs had a 108 year drought.

From 1921 to 1981, the Cubs were owned by the Wrigley Company — hence “Wrigley Field.” In 1981, the Tribune Company, which also owned WGN, acquired the team, and between 1978 and 1990, Cubs games were broadcast nationwide as part of that channels “superstation” programming, gaining the team fans across the country. (See wikipedia here and here.) In 2009, the Ricketts family bought the team, and for the first time it was owned by individuals rather than a corporation.

What difference does this make? I’m not a baseball expert by any means, but my sense it that this did have a significant impact. When owned by the Tribune Company, I imagine that it had something of the status of an annuity line of business. The Cubs earned money year-in and year-out through ticket sales and merchandise and TV rights. Again, I don’t really know, but I could well imagine that there wasn’t anyone that really had the same personal motivation to see the team succeed as the Ricketts now do — and with motivation comes the willingness to invest in a great, though expensive manager in Theo Epstien.

Here’s another bit of history and context: the Cubs play in Wrigley Field, the second-oldest ballpark in the country, and the last one to have lights installed to permit play after dark, in 1988 — and I vaguely remember night games being quite contentious, and it seems to me there are still limits on the number of night games permitted. Surely this gives, and gave, them a disadvantage in terms of the potential ticket prices. The Ricketts also initiated a major renovation of the park, also contentious and requiring substantial negotiations with the city and with the owners of neighboring buildings who profited by selling rooftop seating. To be sure, the Wikipedia article appears somewhat dated, so it’s not clear what the status of the project is, but it seems to me that the Tribune Company was either uninterested in renovation or figured it was too politically sensitive to pursue as primarily a media company, which if nothing else further points to the fact that the Ricketts ownership marks a new era.

In other words: it’s not a fluke. I’m sure an actual baseball fan could give far more context and history, but, as an actuary, I’m here to tell you that this is not a case of a “near-impossible event coming to pass,” and should not be used as an omen or portent or be imbued with some sort of deep meaning.

But it’s still a good thing. (Go, Cubs, go!)

Uncategorized

baseball

Chicago Cubs

Previous Post

November 3, 2016

Eh, what's the worst that can happen?

Next Post

November 7, 2016 Girl Boy Scouts: an update

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category Actuarial/Retirement Issues Politics Uncategorized

Select a Month September 2026 August 2026 July 2026 June 2026 April 2026 March 2026 February 2026 January 2026 December 2025 November 2025 October 2025 July 2025 June 2025 May 2025 April 2025 March 2025 February 2025 January 2025 December 2024 November 2024 October 2024 September 2024 August 2024 July 2024 June 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 December 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 August 2021 June 2021 April 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

I was rejected by God as king for offering an unauthorized sacrifice instead of waiting. Who am I?

Select your answer to see how you score.

David Rehoboam Saul Solomon