When will we reach Peak Pot?

Last updated on: August 14, 2016 at 8:25 am by Jane the Actuary

When will we reach Peak Pot? 2016-08-14T08:25:58-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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from pixabay.com; https://pixabay.com/en/foliage-cannabis-marijuana-lush-1157792/

and what will it look like?

I wrote on Friday about the Gallup poll reporting a huge rise in the number of people identifying themselves as current marijuana users, from 7% in 2013 to 13% in 2016.

That’s a startling increase.

Unfortunately, it’s difficult to compare this figure internationally, since the standard metric is percent of respondents who have used pot at some point in the past year, such as in this set of Wikipedia statistics, which reports that, in 2009, 13.7% of adults reported having used pot in the past year. For comparison, in the Netherlands, famous for its de facto legalization, in 2005 (seeming the most recent year available), that figure was 5.4%.

A separate prevalence survey in the U.S., published in the JAMA, reported that in 2001 – 2002, the annual usage rate was 4.1%, and this climbed to 9.5% in 2011 – 2012.

What accounts for these different prevalences – 13.7% vs. 9.5%? The 9.5% figure comes from face-to-face interviews, so perhaps a certain number of interviewees were more hesitant to acknowledge use.

Now, the “sales pitch,” if you will, for de-criminalizing pot is that, at present, white middle-class kids get away with it and poor black kids land in jail, so, in order not to ruin young lives with jail sentences, we need to end the penalties. That, minus the race issue, is the premise of many of the articles now defending Malia Obama, such as “Why Should Malia Obama Face No Consequences, and a Poor Black Kid Face Jail?” at HeatSt.com, and “Malia Obama Allegedly Smoking Pot Isn’t a Big Deal, President Obama’s Foot-Dragging on Marijuana Reform Is,” at Reason.com.

But we’re clearly not seeing stable use of pot — the rationale that “they’re going to do it anyway” isn’t seeming to be credible. Perhaps one can argue that rates were always high, and only in recent years are people willing to admit to pollsters that they smoke pot. But ever-increasing numbers of people tell pollsters they believe alcohol is more harmful to one’s health than pot — 70% in a recent Pew study.

Are these growing rates temporary? Is this “youthful experimentation” on a national scale?

The experience of the Netherlands is often cited (such as in this Washington Post article, and its comments) to make the claim that, if only we decriminalized pot, it would no longer be a forbidden fruit, and thus the vast majority of Americans would lose interest. But I just don’t see many people being attracted by the criminality of the endeavor.

It’s a matter of culture. The Dutch culture is, well, very middle-class. So far as I understand, the various, ahem, “urban” pathologies we have in the U.S. aren’t as much of an issue as there is a strong cultural push to, well, behave. Heck, this is the Dutch, who ride their frickin’ bikes everywhere, regardless of weather. Fun fact about the Dutch: we got a speeding ticket, via a speeding camera, for going two miles over the speed limit. And there is, I think, a clear stigma against using pot — the Amsterdam coffeeshops are frequented primarily by tourists, not by the locals.

What’s happening in the U.S. is not just legalization but more of a removal of the stigma, the cultural message that there’s anything wrong with it — coming at a time when the stigma is being simultaneously removed from so many other things. Sure, no one’s out there saying, “we should welcome and celebrate our pot-smoking brothers and sisters” but I suspect a message of “tolerance” is being heard with respect to pot in the same way as it is for same-sex marriage, transgenders, and everything else now put in that “good” category, even as smoking cigarettes comes in for an extra dose of stigma. (Heck, there was even an article in the Washington Post the other day that pot is better for your sex life than alcohol, and there are further articles popping up suggesting we’d all be better off if alcoholics were potheads instead.)

So my question is this:

if pot is fully or de facto legalized, and if there is a cultural shift in the United States towards an acceptance of pot-smoking as a perfectly fine activity for one’s spare time, is there a “natural” upper limit on the number of pot smokers in the U.S.? — Consider too, increasing concerns about young people adrift, and the extended adolescence that seems to be increasingly the norm, with seeming perception among young people that, so long as you haven’t unintentionally procreated, your 20s are a time for enjoying yourself.

Here’s an upper bound: in Yemen, according to Wikipedia, 70 – 80% of men chew khat at least occasionally, and 60% daily.

image from pixabay.com; https://pixabay.com/en/foliage-cannabis-marijuana-lush-1157792/

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