What about a third-party vote?

Last updated on: July 25, 2016 at 6:28 pm by Jane the Actuary

What about a third-party vote? 2016-07-25T18:28:24-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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Should I vote for this man? That’s Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party.

Fellow blogger Jennifer Fitz wrote the other day, “Why You Should Vote 3rd Party This Year,” that is, rather than just not voting, the gist of her argument being,

When you vote third party, you send a clear, unequivocal message that is formally recorded and measured. You indicate to the major parties, and to the rest of the citizenry, which way the reform needs to go in order to field a winning candidate.

Voting third party will not cause the person you cast your vote for to win. It will, however, cause the next round of candidates, at every level of elected office, to seek to be more like what it would take to win your vote.

Candidates need your vote. They watch the polls and try to read the wind and guess which way to shift in order to ride popular opinion.

By voting third party, you most clearly communicate what your expectations are and how the next cycle’s candidates need to be different.

Which would be useful advice — if there were a third-party candidate whose positions I agreed with, rather than the candidate for the major party whose positions I largely align with, being off his rocker, and, in general, better suited for such a third party (remember Ross Perot’s “giant sucking sound”?). In reality, looking at the list of third parties from wikipedia, there is no third party that would better represent my views — not the Libertarians, not the Greens, not the Constitution Party, and not the various kooks who generally don’t even get on the ballot.

What about voting for anyone, just to prove the point that you’re an engaged citizen who’s actively choosing not to vote for Trump or Clinton?

Or, better yet, what about the long-shot theories that, if only Gary Johnson, Libertarian candidate and former governor of New Mexico (as a Republican), could win a state, any state, and, simultaneously, Clinton and Trump were to tie, there would be no majority in the electoral college, the decision would be sent to the House of Representatives, and anything could happen? After all, Johnson (who received a bit of media attention just today) isn’t crazy, and isn’t corrupt. But this is so preposterously long-shot that it’s fundamentally nothing more than wishful thinking.

And at the same time: Johnson supports unrestricted immigration, drug legalization, and a host of other policies I disagree with. If this is a “send a message” vote, would my support be the wrong message?

Well, I suppose it’s still just July — lots can happen before November!

UPDATE: well, OK, so I overstated things with respect to a lack of a majority in the electoral college. Here’s a summary of the process from CNN.

In the however-unlikely event that Trump and Clinton tie, then the vote goes to the House, with each state’s delegation having one vote. Since there are more states with majority-Republican delegations than majority-Democrat, it would still, under ordinary circumstances, produce a win for the Republican — unless, the Republicans agree to split their votes in order to cause a deadlock, in which case the Senate-elected Vice President, presumably Pence, would become the president. Yes, it would require working together, which seems almost more unlikely than a tie in the first place. But it’s a straw to grasp at.

In the likewise-unlikely event that Johnson wins some electoral college votes, and neither Trump nor Clinton get a majority, then the delegations could choose among the three of them, and either elect Johnson as more tolerable than Trump, or manage the same strategy as above. Again, exceedingly unlikely, but not impossible, eh?

Image: Gary Johnson, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AGary_Johnson_June_2016.jpg; By Gary Johnson [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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