So, Brexit it is

Last updated on: June 24, 2016 at 1:09 am by Jane the Actuary

So, Brexit it is 2016-06-24T01:09:27-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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So you all in the U.S. went to bed knowing the result of the Brexit referendum. I’m just waking up and seeing the news.

Three thoughts:

First, the exit polls, or their nearest equivalent, “day-of” polls, were off — showing Remain would squeak by a few percentage points, when it’s Leave by an equally small percentage, 52% to 48%. Either result is close. Either result shows that there’s no national consensus; one would expect that a vote of such profound importance would have had a higher margin one way or the other.

But at the same time, the choice was stark: yes or no. There was no way to express a “I’d like to keep our trade ties but reduce the power of the Eurocrats” other than reducing that sentiment to a “I don’t believe this is possible, so I want to leave.”

How many people were in the middle, in terms of their overall sentiment, but had no way to express a “mend it, don’t end it” opinion, and feared that a Remain would leave them powerless to modify the ties?

Second, the reporting is boiling the decision down, for ordinary Britons, to a matter of immigration — both the Eastern Europeans entitled to move to the UK due to free movement provisions, and the obligations to take in refugees according to EU committments. The concerns about jobs, welfare benefits, wage undercutting, etc., are the same as with respect to Mexican immigration to the United States, and Americans would find a similar arrangement with Mexico and Central America intolerable, though, to be sure, the income disparities between the US and our neighbors to the south is greater than the disparities between Britian and Eastern Europe.

Third is the question of how damaging the exit will be to the British, European, and world economy. Not long ago, Obama was making threats like “Britian will go to the end of the queue” with respect to trade agreements, and there were statements floating around that the EU and others would essentially punish the UK for leaving, with trade wars and other Bad Things. One hopes this wouldn’t actually come to pass, that world leaders and civilized nations wouldn’t decide to treat a nation in a punitive way because of the voter’s decision.

And fundamentally, taken in isolation, the decision of a country whether to be a part of a larger international organization, and how much of their sovereignty to give up to that organization, is well within their rights to decide. There’s nothing xenophobic or racist or otherwise unjust about choosing one way or another, no grounds for choosing to “punish” the people of Britain for their vote.

And yet, of course, the fact that Britain joined the EU and is now leaving, has the potential to be tremendously disruptive. How disruptive, exactly, remains to be seen, and at some point becomes a matter of whether people of good will can come to new agreements on a different footing. But the work in implementing Leave will be difficult and costly, at a minimum. And already the pound has dropped dramatically, by 10% since yesterday — too late for us to benefit unless we spend freely for one last day — but there’s no way to know yet how long-term that impact will be.

It is however, not an outbreak of war, not an economic collapse, not an apocalypse.

So that’s what I know. What do you think?

Image: the TV, as we’re watching it while getting ready for the day.

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