Nomination Endgame (plus: the debate)

Last updated on: March 4, 2016 at 7:14 am by Jane the Actuary

Nomination Endgame (plus: the debate) 2016-03-04T07:14:40-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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So right now, pundits are speculating: should each remaining GOP candidate stay in the race, because there’s a risk, if any drop out, that their supporters will choose Trump instead? Or should they consolidate, to improve the odds that the Last Non-Trump Standing will win in the crucial winner-take-all states? Me, I think the latter.

Or, rather, here’s the issue: no matter what differences there are between Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich, at this point the fundamental issue is this: Trump or NotTrump? For any particular voter, which of the NotTrumps in particular is a secondary consideration. Which means that, in order for election results from here on out to be meaningful, they must be: Trump or NotTrump?

In a perfect world, that’s how the ballot would read, with, perhaps a second question of “which NotTrump do you choose?” If the NotTrumps win, it’s a contested convention in which the delegates work out who the NotTrump nominee is. If Trump wins, well, then the people have more authentically spoken than if Trump accumulates votes by means of winner-take-alls when his overall level of support is in the mid or high 30s.

But, of course, that option doesn’t exist, and Trump voters aren’t going to buy the claim that “your guy, while he had the plurality, had less than an outright majority, so our guy, who had far fewer delegates, wins.”

And that’s why Kasich needs to drop, and Rubio and Cruz need to form a unity “Crubio” ticket. Who’s on the top spot? I guess they could flip for it. Or they could announce, in a manner similar to a coalition agreement in countries with coalition-building, a joint platform born of a couple late-night negotiating sessions prior to the next primaries, or, at any rate, prior to the March 15th primaries. (Heck, in some cases, those coalitions are so even that power is shared and each party head serves as Chancellor/Prime Minister for half the usual term.)

This would create a true binary Trump vs. NotTrump choice, which is what the Republican Party needs.

Either that, or a credible third party candidate.

UPDATE: I wrote the above prior to last night’s trainwreck of a debate, described well here, which I didn’t try to live-blog and that turned out to be just as well, because I’d just be repeatedly saying, “now they’re arguing. . . ”

Unfortunately, Kasich repeated his determination to stay in the race, out of an apparent refusal to recognize reality, still fixated on “what should have been.” Maybe we need Crubio with a promise of a major cabinet seat?

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