Question for readers: how much should the U.S. grow?

Last updated on: October 15, 2015 at 8:07 am by Jane the Actuary

Question for readers: how much should the U.S. grow? 2015-10-15T08:07:49-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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You have perhaps seen the projections: Africa and the Middle East, as well as the poorer central Asian countries, are projected to explode in population over the next decades. Latin America will grow more moderately, and Europe’s population, as well as that of the wealthier Asian countries, is expected to shrink or is already shrinking.

The US? The World Bank says it’s projected to grow from 320 to 390 million by 2050. By 2065, Pew projects a population of 441 million; I’m not sure if they use the same assumptions as the World Bank does, as the projection is so heavily dependent in the U.S. on assumptions for future immigration, to which Pew attributes 88% of future population growth. In fact, the fertility rate in the U.S. is currently below replacement, and has been at or below replacement level since 1971 (even taking into account higher rates for existing Hispanic immigrants).

How did Pew arrive at this projection? Here’s what they say in their methodology appendix:

Our projection for 2015-2020 is about 1.2 million immigrants per year or approximately the same as during the 2010-2015 period. . . .

In the longer-range projections for this report, we took into account the immigration rate over the very long term and over the last 40 years. Further, the projected aging of the U.S. population through 2030 inherent in these projections points to a decrease in the share of the U.S. population in the working ages that would be slowed somewhat with increased immigration flows. Thus, immigration levels after 2020 are projected to increase for the next 10 years at a rate slightly above the population growth rate and then after 2030 to increase by about 1% per year, or a rate equivalent to the overall U.S. growth rate over the last 30 to 50 years. With these assumptions, by 2060-2065, the immigration rate will return to a level slightly below the rates over the last 40 years (4.6 per 1,000 versus 4.8). The average number of immigrants per year will climb from about 1.2 million during 2010-2015 to 1.5 million for 2030-2035 to about 2.0 million in 2060-2065 (Figure A1). The projected percentage increases in immigration flows after 2020 are applied to all race/Hispanic origin groups. Consequently, Asian immigration will continue to be higher than Hispanic immigration, and these two groups will account for a large majority of future immigration flows (Figure A2).

I’m not sure I follow this entirely, but their assumption seems to be that, either in a planned or unplanned fashion, immigration will increase to keep the proportion of workers to retirees consistent with current ratios.

Which all goes back to the question at the title:

How does 441 million feel to you? There’s plenty of discussion on the growth of the planet’s population, but considering the U.S. specifically, do you think there’s a maximum number of people beyond which our own country is overpopulated? Or should we say, “the more, the merrier” and consider any concerns as fear-mongering?

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