My latest theory — on hardliners in American politics

Last updated on: May 29, 2014 at 9:33 am by Jane the Actuary

My latest theory — on hardliners in American politics 2014-05-29T09:33:00-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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So here’s a “Daily Caller” article on Eric Cantor’s primary challenger Dave Brat, who is framing his candidacy as opposing amnesty, and Cantor as an amnesty supporter. Cantor touts his credentials as refusing to bring up the Senate bill for consideration, and opposing similar legislation. As for Brat?

Cantor said “immigration reform” was a top priority for 2013, said [Brat campaign manager Zachary] Werrell, but now “he’s realizing that voters in his district are overwhelmingly against it, and all of a sudden, he’s saying he’s against amnesty.”

What’s going on? From all appearances, Cantor has been trying to have it both ways: appealing to his constituents by emphasizing anti-amnesty votes, and appealing to big-money donors by supporting “immigration reform.” Now voters have to decide whether they trust him when he says he’ll block a general amnesty, or whether they fear he’ll betray him as soon as he wins his primary.

And hence my theory: why are politicians increasingly at the extreme ends of their parties? Yes, gerrymandering plays a part, when so many elections are decided at the primary level because there is no effective opposition. Yes, the corrupt politics that favors incumbents to an extraordinary degree, as they use their office to collect cash, and especially because more power accrues to longer-serving Representatives and Senators so that voters won’t want to lose the power their state or district gains by having a long-serving politician.

But I think that trust plays a role too, or, rather, the lack of trust. It’s easy to tell where a “hardliner” stands. Voters don’t have to worry that they’ll be “sold out” by someone with strong ideological convictions. To vote for a centrist requires a lot more trust that he’ll do the right thing and that he’s being truthful about his policy positions. How many times have I read of Obama, “I knew he was lying about some of his policy positions; it’s just that I thought he was lying about the policies that I opposed, not the ones I supported”?

And politicians are, it seems to me (see my comments earlier this month), increasingly open and unhesitating in their lying. Which, I think, makes voters less likely to take a chance on a centrist.

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