What I’m watching for in 2014

Last updated on: January 1, 2014 at 11:30 am by Jane the Actuary

What I’m watching for in 2014 2014-01-01T11:30:00-06:00 Jane the Actuary

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So I started out thinking it would be a nice bloggy exercise to write out predictions for 2014, but I look ahead to 2014 with too much uncertainty. So here’s what I’m thinking are my “areas of concern and/or hope” for 2014:

Healthcare:

Yes, I’ve said repeatedly that ObamaCare isn’t going to implode. It’ll limp along for the foreseeable future, with the Obama administration waiving and deferring and executively ordering as much as needed to keep it going without changing the core components (which, at this point, basically amount to being wedded to the modified-community-rating cross-subsidies and the discontinuous direct subsidies). And right now we’re just poll-watching, when the final measure won’t be known until March 31st.

Immigration:

Will the GOP cave? Or, to the contrary, will they push Democrats to support or reject a mini-Dream Act? Will they propose legislation with hard, non-waivable triggers, and stand firm on it? (Of course, the trick is how you make a trigger non-waivable, since you’d really need to create a condition in which a private citizen has standing to sue to build in some tangible consequence for waiving. My pet — though admittedly unrealistic — solution is to build a requirement that if the administration waives or defers or does a sucky job at enforcing an e-verify provision and grants amnesty nonetheless, all parents shall be entitled to claim 75% of their children’s K-12 private/parochial school tuition as a refundable tax credit. The progressives would have a heart attack at that!)

The elections:

Nationally, I’ve not really read much on what the GOP’s chances are of taking the Senate, though we know that Obama and the Dems are going to do as much maneuvering as possible to try to prevent this. Locally, Illinois is looking at a wealthy businessman spending his own money to win the GOP primary, then losing in the general election. (His claim is the usual “I’ll run Illinois like a business” but business-management skills are not what’s needed — the problems Illinois faces are the control of Mike Madigan, the unions, and historical corruption.) And, for the Senate, our challenge to Dick Durbin will be one of two self-financed businessmen, the wealthier of the two being Jim Oberweis, who’s lost election after election, and is now partway through a term of State Senator.

The economy:

Who isn’t worried that the stock market is bubbly rather than genuinely stable? I do wish I had more of an economics background, since my feeling is that the stock market is so high due to the very low interest rates in bonds, CDs, etc., pushing investors into stocks who would otherwise steer clear. But I don’t have the data to back up or disprove this feeling.

In any case, the stock market is treating my family well, personally, but the overall labor market is still very worrisome, and I don’t see any changes here.

The Eurozone:

Yeah, this has been quiet lately, but the PIIGS are still struggling, and Merkel was forced to compromise substantially in building her Grand Coalition, with a very uncertain outcome.

North Korea:

A time bomb. Un is showing that he sees himself as the third in a ruling dynasty, and is attempting to consolidate his power in the same way as an emperor would have centuries ago. A popular revolution is highly unlikely, but a power struggle between Un and the military could easily happen. Best case, he’s toppled and we have military dictatorship as in Myanmar; worst case, there’s open fighting. Actually, the worst case is the Un attacks the South in some fashion in order to keep his grip. At the same time, there’s an equally good chance that they limp along in the status quo for some time yet.

Syria/the Middle East:

This one worries me greatly. Al Qaida/Islamism is gaining strength, and the West is too worried about political correctness to acknowledge it. (Or too delusional, to the extent that the Obama administration believes that they can skillfully help the “right” Syrian rebels.) I don’t see a good outcome here.

So that’s my list. What’s yours?

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