#NeverTrump evangelicals: 2016’s game changers?

Last updated on: October 14, 2016 at 10:54 am by Jacob Lupfer

#NeverTrump evangelicals: 2016’s game changers? 2016-10-14T10:54:11-04:00 Jacob Lupfer

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There are two opposing hypotheses about #NeverTrump evangelicals in the 2016 election. Both cannot be true. Or, perhaps I should say, one must be more true than the other. Arguments abound for both. But from the standpoint of election analysis (and, in the weeks ahead, strategy), this is a time for choosing.

1. Conservative evangelicals will vote for the Republican nominee, as usual.
2. Conservative evangelicals will balk at Trump, potentially upending the election.

In a previous post, I laid out five reasons why #NeverTrump evangelicals probably won’t matter in 2016. This is based on historical trends, close observation of evangelical political engagement, and political science research. This is what my head tells me must be true.

But my heart wants something altogether different.

I have studied the relationship between Christianity and political behavior for most of my adult life. The marriage of convenience between conservative evangelicals and the Republican Party was great for the GOP but bad for Christianity. We can argue about how and why it was bad, but I don’t think many people are defending the view that de facto Republican identity among whites has been good for evangelical Protestantism.

In my work, I deal with facts a lot. But I also dabble in opinions. My view is that conservative evangelicals can be more powerful and more effective politically if they end their unconditional loyalty to the GOP.

Here are five reasons why conservative evangelicals could change American politics in 2016.

“Evangelical” may be more than a synonym for “conservative white Protestant.” Are committed evangelicals politically different than nominal or cultural conservative white Protestants? If not, then their witness is badly compromised and the public posture of their religion will be seen, with some justification, as little more than a front for Republican politics. But if the devout faithful stand out in meaningful ways from their nominal brethren, people will have to conclude that there is something distinctive about their faith and its political implications, after all.
The Republican Party cannot win the presidency or even hold its congressional majorities without the votes of evangelical Christians. These voters have proven to be so reliable and faithful that the GOP often gets their votes without delivering on their priorities. If enough evangelicals withheld their votes, the party would be forced to listen to a thoughtful, common-good-oriented segment of the Christian right, not just its unconditional GOP apologists.
In recent years, the evangelicals I consider to be more reflective and creative about their political engagement have broadened their constellation of concerns to include issues like the environment, immigration, criminal justice reform, and even poverty. The GOP has largely repudiated these evangelicals’ advocacy. But if this segment of conservative evangelical voters stays home in November, leading Republicans would be inclined to put those items on their agenda.
Inexplicably, Donald Trump thinks he is leading on religious liberty by mandating “Merry Christmas!” and promising to give churches more leeway to engage in partisan politics. He seems clueless about conservative evangelicals’ conscience objections to the new LGBT rights regime even as religious liberty becomes a more and more important political priority for them. If evangelicals balk at voting for Trump en masse, then they will see the Republican Party (and maybe, to some limited degree, the Democrats) address religious freedom issues in more meaningful ways.
Evangelicals’ critics say their religion is sexist. And while people of good faith and goodwill can debate gender roles in church and society, no one can defend Trump’s outdated and immoral view of women. To the degree that Trump’s election would be a setback for women culturally and politically, evangelicals should receive credit and appreciation for denying him the White House, especially considering the damage (from their perspective) a President Hillary Clinton will do to the federal courts. Evangelicals who repudiate Trump send a clear signal to each other and to a watching world: Trump’s rhetoric and behavior toward women is unacceptable, unchristian, and disqualifying.

FullSizeRender Now, I am aware that conservative evangelicals often see themselves as a hated minority. Some people do hate them. Maybe there is nothing evangelicals can do to improve their standing in the public square. But the chief complaints against them are hypocrisy and selective literalism. (I received a text message to this effect while composing this post.) Evangelicals who repudiate Trump can do a lot:

Save the country and world from a Donald Trump presidency
Prove that they are not “cheap dates” or “political whores”
Demonstrate that they esteem principle above partisanship
Distinguish themselves from the old-guard leaders of the Religious Right
Command the attention and responsiveness of Republican Party leaders
Avoid the spiritual rot that accompanies faith-based Trump defenses

Even if the country never thanks them, at least #NeverTrump evangelicals will have done the right thing and improved the integrity of their political witness going forward.

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Why #NeverTrump evangelicals may not matter much in 2016

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