War Is Not Inevitable (But It Has Become Far More Likely)

Last updated on: January 3, 2020 at 4:53 pm by Henry Karlson

War Is Not Inevitable (But It Has Become Far More Likely) 2020-01-03T16:53:07-05:00 Henry Karlson

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The United States has acted wrongly in its assassination of Qassim Soleimani. No one has to believe he was a man of upstanding moral character to think it was wrong to assassinate him. Far from it. Believing him to be the leader of Iran’s terrorist forces does not mean it is ethical for the United States, under orders from Trump, to kill him as it did. For, by acting this way, the United States inadvertently justified Soleimani and his actions by doing what he is accused of doing: killing people he thought was dangerous. It becomes a never-ending cycle of violence and destruction so long as people think in this manner. Everyone will justify their assaults on each other on the notion that the other is violent and so worth being taken out.

Which is why we are already seeing things are quickly spiraling out of control. Iran vows revenge. Iraq, no ally to Iran, has been brought into the mess, as the assassination took place on their sovereign territory, and they likewise condemned what the United States has done, not only as an unjust attack against Soleimani, but also as an attack against their own sovereignty. While a large full-scale war in the Middle East is not yet inevitable, it certainly has become far more likely than before.

And who will such a war benefit? Donald Trump, who has been impeached, but has yet to have a trial in the Senate, probably thinks it would help him and serve as a distraction from the impeachment and any other criticism which has been launched in his direction. Likewise, he probably thinks it would help him get reelected. Since Trump has a history of projecting upon others what he does himself, when we read Trump claimed Obama would go to war with Iran to win an election, we certainly can get a sense of what he is thinking. Likewise, it would probably help Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, as he is facing corruption charges that he is trying to get dismissed by any means possible. If war breaks out, Israel would likely be drawn into the war (either on its own initiative or by being attacked by Iran), and in doing so, Israel would feel the existential threat it faces with such a war overrides any and all other matters. Similarly, Putin and Russia, as well as Xi Jinping in China, would see war in the Middle East would benefit them and their desire to rise in power in the world, and so it should not be surprising to see them trolling the United States in order to encourage such a fate.

Who would suffer from such a war? The whole world. Of course, how much the world would suffer will depend upon how limited the war remains. But even a limited war will likely affect countless innocents in the regions where the war is undertaken, as well as innocents around the world, because what happens in the Middle East will affect oil distribution, and with it, creating crisis after crisis due to the lack of resources needed to keep the power grids working properly. Obviously, we need to get off our reliance on fossil fuels, but we are not there yet, and so any interference with the power grid as a result of war in the Middle East will cause chaos and harm, especially for the most vulnerable, the poor, who will not be able to afford the escalating cost of living which will come as a result of such a disruption. If, however, the war is not limited, then things can and will only get worse; Trump consistently has demonstrated the interest in using nuclear weapons, and if he decides to use them, the fate of the world might just be answered with a doomsday scenario long before the the world suffers the full impact of climate change.

We can’t assume that Trump wants peace. He doesn’t. He has indicated before that he likes to strike at others when he feels threatened. He likes to make others pay when he suffers. But, saying this, we must realize we are not yet at war yet. Likewise, war is not yet inevitable. There is still time to stop it. There is time to push back against Trump, to rein him in. There is time to work with allies to diffuse the situation in the Middle East, to once again engage negotiations as the means of diplomacy instead of war

We must say no to war. We must pray for peace. We must resist the pull towards wars. We must resist the excuses and justifications which are given for war and war crimes. We must work for peace before it is too late.

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