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Checking Our Predictions for 2024

Checking Our Predictions for 2024

Last updated on: December 31, 2024 at 6:00 am by Gene Veith

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Checking Our Predictions for 2024 2024-12-21T22:13:26-05:00 Gene Veith

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

There were 99 comments on Your Predictions for 2024, some of which were in the nature of conversations rather than predictions, but some of you submitted long lists of the latter. I thank you. You exhibited much wisdom, even when you were wrong, or sometimes especially when you were wrong.

I confess that I wickedly used the AI search engine Perplexity to check your predictions, and it only hallucinated once, as far as I know. Lisa predicted that 2024 would be the hottest year on record. Me: “What was the hottest year on record?” Perplexity: “The hottest year on record was 2023.” Me: “What about 2024?” Perplexity: “The hottest year on record was 2024.” I did cross check the answers the old-fashioned way by clicking Perplexity’s sources, which often aren’t the best. If I thought you were wrong when you were really right, blame it on AI.

I admit this because AI featured in a lot of your predictions. It would mess up the election, some of you thought. It really didn’t. It would wreak other kinds of havoc. It hasn’t really progressed as far as people had assumed it would, so that’s a relief.

Skyorrichegg deserves some acclaim for getting AI to make predictions for this contest! He gave parameters according to what we were looking for and narrowed down the prompts, resulting in some truly fascinating prophecies. AI believes that in 2024, people will begin to have conversations with plants “on a deep and emotional level.” A smartphone App will predict users’ needs before they themselves know what they are. Insect protein will become popular, with culinary experts raving about the unique flavors and textures of insect cuisine. A new Protestant denomination will use AI to interpret the will of God. Peace will be restored to Russia and the Ukraine when hackers disable the weapons of both sides.

Let us get to the winners’ circle. . . .

I want to start giving a prize for the best prediction that didn’t come true. That would go to Steve Bauer, who predicted that “Jesus will return on Monday, November 4, at 11:59 p.m., putting the Great Tribulation to an end.” Unfortunately, that did not occur. It would have spared us the election. So the Great Tribulation will continue.

I also want to give a special prize for a non-human participant. Skyorrichegg’s AI predictions did include an item that didn’t exactly come true, but was sort of close. The AI prediction was that the Catholic church would make plans for a monastery on the moon. I asked my AI and it told me that while this didn’t happen, in 1967, a theologian named Terence J. Mangan and an architect named Mark Mills, a protege of Frank Lloyd Wrights, drew up plans for a chapel on the moon. Think that this could be a case of two Artificial Intelligences conspiring together against humanity, I checked, and sure enough, as reported by America: The Jesuit Review, this happened and the results were published in the November 1967 issue of the Liturgical Arts Journal. This was in 1967, not 2004, not a monastery but a chapel, but that’s a pretty good guess for an inanimate object.

Speaking of politics, that topic dominated the predictions, as we would expect. Most were wrong. My projections that Biden would win and that the Democrats would also take the House and Senate were exactly wrong, with the opposite outcome being the case. Almost everyone predicted that Biden would win the election. There were, however, some good predictions. Wassup402 predicted that Biden would not be the Democratic nominee. Lars Walker predicted that “Pres. Biden will withdraw from the race, to be replaced by a younger, more vital substitute,” but then he had to go on to say that that the resulting ticket would “easily” defeat Donald Trump. Tom Herring predicted that both Biden and Trump would have health issues or die, and that the Democratic nominee would be Kamala Harris. That was a good prediction, spoiled only by going on to say that she would run against Nikki Haley and win the election, since the abortion issue will outweigh the border issue.

Kerner had a cluster of predictions that came true, along with some that didn’t. The Republicans did take the Senate; Javier Milei is still the president of Argentina; Claudia Sheinbaum was elected Mexico’s first female president; and Republicans are shifting to an anti-war, non-interventionist position.

So all of those mentioned as being in the winners’ circle, congratulations. There were, however, two contestants who did so well that we’re going to have to split the Gluten Free Award among them (which is easy because it doesn’t have any material existence).

Lisa, who describes herself as “a longtime reader” made 5 predictions. And every one of them came true! With no misses!

(1) Yes, 2024 is the hottest year on record.

(2) Yes, the 2024 election went rather smoothly, with AI-generated misinformation not really a factor.

(3) Yes, 40,000 Palestinians would die in the war with Israel. Actually, 44,000.

(4) Yes, China did not invade Taiwan.

(5) Yes, American fossil fuel output reached its highest point ever.

Some of her predictions were projections from earlier trends, but when I try that, I always get something wrong, so let’s join in congratulating Lisa!

But the other recipient of the Gluten Free Award made a more unlikely prediction, something none of the rest of us expected, but that nevertheless came true; something with all the odds against it happening; an event that took place despite unprecedented obstacles: Donald Trump won the election.

RayRay was the only prognosticator who predicted that Trump would win! Some contestants wanted him to win, but just didn’t think it was possible. RayRay knew. And he was right. For that, I think all would agree that RayRay deserves his share of the Gluten Free Award for 2024!

If you know Lisa and RayRay, plus the other honorees, please let them know and spread the word.

Come back tomorrow to make your predictions for 2025!

Photo by RDNE Stock project via Pexels, Public Domain, https://www.pexels.com/photo/a-man-s-face-of-victory-holding-his-trophy-7005500/

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