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Clinton might not win the Democratic nomination

Clinton might not win the Democratic nomination

Last updated on: June 2, 2016 at 5:30 am by Gene Veith

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Clinton might not win the Democratic nomination 2016-06-01T19:41:21-04:00 Gene Veith

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Bernie Sanders is polling high in California, which holds its Democratic primary on June 7; Hillary Clinton’s legal problems are growing; and new polls show Sanders doing better against Donald Trump than she would. Many Democratic party super-delegates are reportedly considering switching their votes to Sanders. Furthermore, Sanders supporters have been given prominent spots on the rules committee, which is likely to consider a rule requiring super-delegates to vote the way the primary voters did in their states.

So there is a chance, as Douglas E. Schoen explains, that Hillary Clinton will not, in fact, be the Democratic nominee.

My question for you: Do you think Bernie Sanders would be better than Mrs. Clinton? To those of you who don’t like Donald Trump, would you vote for Sanders instead?

From Douglas E. Schoen, Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee – WSJ:

There is now more than a theoretical chance that Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee for president.

How could that happen, given that her nomination has been considered a sure thing by virtually everyone in the media and in the party itself? Consider the possibilities.

The inevitability behind Mrs. Clinton’s nomination will be in large measure eviscerated if she loses the June 7 California primary to Bernie Sanders. That could well happen.

Opinion Journal Video
Hoover Institution Research Fellow Bill Whalen on the latest Golden State poll and the implications for next week’s presidential primary. Photo credit: Getty Images.
A recent PPIC poll shows Mrs. Clinton with a 2% lead over Mr. Sanders, and a Fox News survey found the same result. Even a narrow win would give him 250 pledged delegates or more—a significant boost. California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders, and the experience in recent open primaries has been that the Vermont senator tends to underperform in pre-election surveys and over-perform on primary and caucus days, thanks to the participation of new registrants and young voters.

To this end, data from mid-May show that there were nearly 1.5 million newly registered Democratic voters in California since Jan. 1. That’s a 218% increase in Democratic voter registrations compared with the same period in 2012, a strongly encouraging sign for Mr. Sanders.
A Sanders win in California would powerfully underscore Mrs. Clinton’s weakness as a candidate in the general election. Democratic superdelegates—chosen by the party establishment and overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton, 543-44—would seriously question whether they should continue to stand behind her candidacy.

There is every reason to believe that at the convention Mr. Sanders will offer a rules change requiring superdelegates to vote for the candidate who won their state’s primary or caucus. A vote on that proposed change would almost certainly occur—and it would function as a referendum on the Clinton candidacy. If Mr. Sanders wins California, Montana and North Dakota on Tuesday and stays competitive in New Jersey, he could well be within 200 pledged delegates of Mrs. Clinton, making a vote in favor of the rules change on superdelegates more likely.

Another problem: In recent weeks the perception that Mrs. Clinton would be the strongest candidate against Donald Trump has evaporated. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Mrs. Clinton in a statistical tie with Mr. Trump, and recent surveys from ABC News/Washington Post and Fox News show her two and three points behind him, respectively.

From Douglas E. Schoen, Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee – WSJ

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