New Year Prediction: Will Donald Trump Finish His Term in Office?

Last updated on: January 13, 2017 at 12:31 am by John Mark N. Reynolds

New Year Prediction: Will Donald Trump Finish His Term in Office? 2017-01-13T00:31:24-04:00 John Mark N. Reynolds

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At the start of the year, I take a look at the world and make my best guesses about what will happen. Here is last year, so you know I am not infallible. Still reasonable guesses are the best a rational person can do.

I still think it was not reasonable to think Trump would win against Clinton . . . but he did. That doesn’t mean betting against him was stupid, weird things happen, but generally they don’t keep happening. Contrary to my friend Hugh Hewitt, I don’t think we are about to enter a period of normal governance.

I think a reasonable person knows this administration starts in serious trouble. Trump is historically unpopular for a President-Elect. He no longer has Clinton to hide his faults. Many voters and members of his own Party, I think mistakenly, viewed him as the lesser of two evils. Both major candidates were unfit, but now one is gone. If Trump leaves office, the far more popular Pence will be President and so there is little reason for the GOP to bury facts if they come to light. The Democrats and the media have good reason to loath Mr. Trump.

Trump lost the popular vote and barely won enough votes to capture the electoral college. The GOP survived his (relative) unpopularity, but they would not survive covering for any sizable scandals. They will not do so as men like Senator Sasse, McCain, and Graham already show no tolerance for the worst of the problems.

First, Mr. Trump certainly lived a “party lifestyle.” We know he has multiple marriages and he partied hard for a long period of time. It is irrational to think more facts and scandals will not be forthcoming. Mr. Trump was damaged by the Billy Bush tape. There are (almost) certainly more such tapes out there and we know from Howard Stern’s show that Trump has a pattern of misogynistic statements in public. What more has he said or done in private?

Second, Trump never let Americans vet his finances fully. His taxes were never released. He has extensive debts and has made deals all over the world. He has not put his finances into a blind trust. Information will be forthcoming and what we know (bankruptcy, business with the mob) is not promising. His unwillingness to work with any government ethics office is frightening.

Third, Trump’s ties to Russia continue to be troubling. Has the President-Elect been compromised by Russian security? Were members of his campaign? We will see. I cannot imagine that this is true, but stranger things have happened.

Finally, Trump continues to misuse Twitter and behave in emotionally erratic manners. If this continues, how long will Congress and the American people tolerate it? How long before it provokes an international problem? Recall: Theodore Roosevelt’s “intemperance” led to a crisis with Columbia over Panama and Roosevelt was a Cicero compared to Trump. . . and TRex did not have social media.

Will Donald J. Trump survive four years in office? For the sake of the Republic, I hope so. Given the facts, a reasonable man would doubt that he will, because the pattern is that Trump does not change and that a new scandal is brewing.

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