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Super Tuesday Live Blog

Super Tuesday Live Blog

Last updated on: March 2, 2016 at 12:10 pm by John Mark N. Reynolds

Super Tuesday Live Blog 2016-03-02T12:10:41-04:00 John Mark N. Reynolds

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Who will be his heir?

The first major returns in delegate terms come tonight. Here is my own view as I voted in Texas today.

My feeds are full of #nevertrump and White nationalists telling me I am a bad person. The Party of Lincoln is splintering. No matter what happens, the Convention will be a nightmare. When I was a kid, people like Reagan said of the Democratic Party, “I did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me.”

This is a live blog so as usual, there is no editing, and I will call it as I see it.

Most of my social media feed is made up of Republicans who are college educated. They are not a happy group. I have friends in every campaign, I have never seen this much anger in a primary. The Party will not unite in any case. There are two parties here and they don’t like each other. This is not Romney/Gingrich or Romney/McCain.

Georgia went to Trump at the top of the hour. The surprise is that Virginia and Vermont are not called. Cruz and Rubio voters will not be content with him as the nominee.

What will count as victory? I suggest that 300 delegates or more and the race is nearly over if Trump gains that number.

If Trump wins Texas, then the race is over. FOX is all Trump all the time. I think Virginia is the real story. Trump was saying: “Sweep.” Will it be? If he cannot get fifty percent in any state that the GOP can win in the general, there is a big problem.

Here it is: facile people say . . . if Rubio or Cruz cannot beat Trump in a primary, how will they beat HRC in the general? Good question: the primary voters in the Republican Primary are open to possibilities that the general electorate is not. Think of it this way: in my church, you could get a decent vote for Romanov restoration, but this is a non-starter in general Houston.

HRC will be the nominee for the Democratic Party. She is a weak and easily beatable candidate. This was a GOP year, but sadly this is not good. The GOP frontrunner will split the Party if nominated and split the Party if nominated. Bill Clinton won in the same situation.

Let us pause and say: it is wonderful that a woman is the nominee of a major party. My Nana was born in a place where women could not vote. This is a beautiful thing.

Bernie Sanders is now arguing for “one person/one vote.” This should stir up the 1932 election.

The Republican problem in 2012 was working class whites, college educated people, and minority groups (particularly) Hispanic voters. Trump will help with the first group, but is not going to do well with the second two groups. Let’s be clear . . . so many of my former students face genuine hardship, deportation of family members, and violence. This is not a Party problem, but a personal problem. I don’t want to forget this truth . . . solidarity.

Trump is speaking in a room that looks like Versailles for the tasteless. Where is this? Apparently this is in his resort. Wow. This is not a good look.

My family has voted Republican since 1864 (we could not vote for a Republican in 1861) and in this room 5/7 people are #nevertrump.

You cannot win an election when my family is 5/7 against the nominee. It has never happened in US history.

For those of us who have known Evangelical grifters, the Dr. Carson campaign is familiar: name dropping, promises without results, lies in ghost written books. Sad. Dr. Carson had a great story, but got sucked into the utterly corrupt world of mega-church pastors who worship money and power.

Alabama, Tennessee, and Massachusetts will go Trump. Trump is getting under 50% everywhere.

Much of the Party hates Trump (over half in most states). Every place does not want Trump, but does not want an insider. Ben Sasse? Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their party.

Virginia is key. If Marco wins Virginia, then the race is on.

Meanwhile, Trump is winning a majority no place.

Laura Ingraham is the most odious public figure I have personally met. After screaming at a student about a Sharpie, she then said: “I am here to sell books.” I said, “Yes, I get it.” She said to my college students: “I am here to sell books.” She then went to her bus. She is the most money orientated person I have ever met. She has much to do with Reagan and ideas as the grifter has to do with integrity. She wore a big cross and then gave a rambling, thoughtless talk with no content. She did more to make students Democrat than anyone I have ever had at a school. Her talk was an intellectual embarrassment as she seemed to assume that her audience was mentally deficient.

Trust me: she is for sale.

Arkansas cannot be called. If Trump were to win just a few states when expected to win all . . . but Texas. . .

If you cannot win the college vote, you cannot win.

Trump will win Virginia, but hardly. This was a victory for Rubio that he really needed.

Problem: Trump is getting a majority no place. This keeps the race alive.

Brilliant friend points out: Reagan opposed to the very end. Trump (this person thinks) will be the same. FYI.

HRC wants to make “America whole.” She is getting chants of “USA.” Good luck, Democratic friends. HRC says we need “more love and kindness.” She will not build walls, but break down barriers. This is the most bloviating speech in the history of speech making. She is not going to “let rhetoric work.” She views us as “her friends.”

Rubio speaking . . . he needs to win, but he is right that his numbers are coming up. You have to win.

It will come down to Florida. Period.

Trump is under performing . . . and that is a fact. Texas went Cruz, Oklahoma went Cruz. Rubio surged everywhere.

Rubio is good, but he has to win somewhere. Anywhere.

Trump has been dominating the media . . . free media.

Most Republicans don’t want Trump . . . but he is getting the delegates.

Here is the deal to this moment: “The national popular vote so far tonight is Trump 35, Rubio 24, Cruz 26 with 2.3 million votes counted.”

Let’s get real. This is not a normal election and we have to know it. What will happen? It will be a brokered convention.

The bloated, bloviating bully boy of the Republican party is introducing Trump. This is a mistake if you want to reach out to the 51% of the party that has voted for Cruz and Rubio.

Trump is now back to “Little Rubio.” Trump will “redo trade deals.” It will “be a thing of beauty.” Companies are “just moving to Mexico.” Trump promises to “lower taxes” and “bring back jobs.” He will “remember the Middle Class.”

Watching the returns: Rubio under 20% in Texas. This is very bad for him. On the other hand, Texas is going big for Cruz.

Comment on Ben Sasse: “the work of a loser.”

Trump “disavowed,” but still did not mention KKK. This is not good and will make it a debate on Thursday.

Trump is now making up numbers about minority votes. Trump now going full protectionist. This is a fantasy press conference. Ryan “will pay a big price” if he does not get along with Trump. We have a “country that is going to hell.”

Chris Christie looks like a hostage. However, this is a wise move to give a press conference and give a Presidential appeal.

The frontrunner of the Republican Party has about 1/3 of the vote.

Cruz makes an appeal for Party unity against Trump. He is making a speech as opposed to a press conference. Unwise? Arguing that Trump is embarrassing to children . . . “profane and vulgar.”

Cruz is on fire . . . said one member of our group “first time I have liked Ted Cruz.” Still . . . he is adenoidal. Associating Trump with Reid and arguing that Trump is insincere. “If you are telling the New York Times . . . ”

I must say it seems unlikely that Trump would tell the NYT something he did not want released.

Cruz is going into his standard stump speech: more heated than Trump.

Meanwhile, Trump will win Arkansas. Vermont and Minnesota are out there. Kasich is trailing in Vermont. Minnesota is trending Rubio. If Rubio wins Minnesota, that will end the “he cannot win.” meme.

As I said at the start of the night: the result suggest a brokered convention. That is what my analysis has said.

If Rubio wins Minnesota, then he did as well as he could have been predicted to have done. Cruz did better (picking up Oklahoma). Trump won where he was predicted to win, but fell short of 50% everywhere. The race is not over.

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