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New Hampshire From Texas

New Hampshire From Texas

Last updated on: February 10, 2016 at 12:14 am by John Mark N. Reynolds

New Hampshire From Texas 2016-02-10T00:14:57-04:00 John Mark N. Reynolds

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Reagan mastered the rules of his time.

New Hampshire, original colony, and beautiful state has just finished a primary. The networks called the results the moment the polls closed so there is less to “live blog” and more a live reaction. Here were my predictions before the polls closed (via Twitter):

Trump 23.5

Kasich 17.5

Cruz 17

Bush 16.5

Rubio 14

Trump has been declared the winner.

Let’s be clear: Trump had to win. He is now the front runner for the nominee, but the percentage matters. Pat Buchanan (!) got almost thirty percent of the vote. If Trump cannot do that, then he did not reach beyond the GOP group that voted for Pitchfork Pat.

The battle for second is key. Losing to Kasich is not a big deal. He spent all his chips on this race. He is the kid in a Risk game who thinks that “taking Australia” is the way to win, kills all his men to get it, wipes out so poor soul in the competition for Australia, only to be left the winner with no men to defend. Kasich is serious for Vice President.

Rubio can lose to Kasich, but must not lose to Bush. That is all important. I am not sure he can survive a fifth place finish. If he ends in single digits, he will have trouble convincing funders he is not all flash who ends up with no cash.

Cruz just have to end up in double digits.

Christie should be out of the race, having served his function of being Bush’s bully boy. Bush should drop out, but if he is in double digits, then he will not.

On the Democratic side, Clinton lost. The key is the margin. Did she “come back?” If Sanders is over 55% in a purple state that saved her against Obama, Clinton is in trouble going forward. She will have to spend down her money and divide the party. In a mildly GOP year, that is a big problem.

Trump is presently at one-third of the vote. If that holds, he has expanded the populist base and is a genuine candidate for the nomination.

At 13% Clinton is getting destroyed and Rubio is in single digits. Trump is crushing the field and is carrying captives behind his victorious chariot.

The key going forward is Bush, Cruz, and Rubio. Rubio had a good finish in Iowa, but did not win. Bush has no reason to clear the field if he beats Rubio, though he spent a boatload of cash for his small return. Cruz won Iowa, so if he places second or third, that is gravy. Christie must beat someone or he must drop out. Right now he is close to Rubio, but both are in single digits. How does Christie win South Carolina?

I will say what I have said many time: Hillary Rodham Clinton is a horrific candidate. She does not enjoy campaigning. Second, Bill Clinton is Donald Trump’s age, but looks very, very bad. He is feeble. This is not the “comeback kid” of his prime.

Rubio had a bad debate moment in an otherwise good debate. That has cost him dearly and now we will see how much. This is not a man with the Bush family fortune and connections to keep him alive. He must finish ahead of Bush. So far, not so good.

Jim “Happy” Gilmore rolls on with .1% of the vote though there are some strong Gilmore precincts out there . . .somewhere. . . beneath the pale moon light.

Important note: nobody under 10% gets a delegate. Rubio must pass this level. Anybody with no delegates after Iowa and New Hampshire must leave or the nominee will be picked by about one-third of the Party.

What will the Democrats do with Hillary (HRC)? They can prop her up, maybe, and stop her in a Southern Fire Wall or with super delegates, but really? She is under investigation. She is unappealing. She is the past. We need two strong parties and HRC is a sure loser. At twenty-two percent reporting, Sanders has 58% of the vote. This is a state that saved her husband twice.

Politics is perception. Is that fair? It is. Rubio rose through his communication skills and is now getting hammered for a failure. Is that fair? It is. The nominee will face the Presidency and if you cannot take the bully boy from Jersey, then KGB thug Putin is too much to handle.

Finally, the time has come to take Trump seriously. If he is the nominee, what will the party do? If he plays by the rules and wins, then he is the nominee. I am not an advocate of “my party right or wrong,” but I do think in a two party system one needs to work in a system. My pro-life Democratic friends work in the DNC to make change. A person may not like the voters we have, but they are the voters we have.

If some in the GOP does not want to see Trump as the nominee, he needs to face a field of four or fewer. Let’s end the seven person debate. No more than five candidates should be in the next debate and I would suggest four. Top three in the first two states or you are out.

The “destructive” campaign against fellow Republicans needs to stop. . . . and of course that includes Trump.

Networks are saying Kasich is in second. That doesn’t matter much, but third does. If Rubio had been second, he would have been on the way to a three way race: Rubio, Cruz, Trump. That is over now. We will have a five way race into South Carolina: Trump, Cruz, Rubio-Kasich-Bush (in order of strength).

Rubio is over 10%: I cannot stress how much the “cluster” matters. If Bush-Cruz-Rubio are over 10% and Christie-Fiorina-Carson are not, then the Party needs to stop pretending Christie-Fiorina-Carson are viable. There are five tickets out of Iowa. If Rubio is in single digits, then he may not be able to stop the bleed.

Can Trump win an Evangelical state? The nominee needs to be able to win in the South. South Carolina is a good test.

The real loser tonight is the establishment in the Democratic Party. HRC did not just lose, she is getting clobbered. Forget being “next door.” She was leading by fifty points in New Hampshire last year. Does anyone really want the Clinton’s back? Really? She might win, but only by the fact that Bernie is doomed in the general.

The GOP vanity candidates must go. The nominee must have to win the majority of the vote in GOP primaries.

With 30% in HRC is under forty percent in a two person race. John Kasich will underperform Huntsman. He should get no bounce. The fact is that Kasich/Cruz/Bush/Rubio are all basically doing poorly. Trump is running ahead of the pack, but it is a pack. Can he win a race against only two well funded candidates? I don’t know, but the Party must find out.

Trump won every group in New Hampshire. He spent almost no money (Kasich spent much more). He was hardly in the state. This is new politics and shows genius. Trump proves that a lightly funded campaign with a star candidate can win against big money and organization.

Weird politic truth: the 1.5% that puts Rubio in fifth is very important. If football is a game of inches, then politics is a game of percentages.

Should we buy land near the border anticipating the Great Wall of Trump? #investment

HRC still under forty percent. I am hard pressed to think of a worse performance in a contested two-way primary. She can say what she will, but the woods are coming to the castle and a man of woman Bern is coming.

In a multiple candidate race, Trump is getting about as many votes as HRC in a two way race (by percentage.) Stop. Think about it.

Where have you gone Joe Biden? The DNC turns its lonely eyes to you.

At 39% reporting: Cruz is now in third. Since he does not need this, that would be a win. Rubio is getting closer to Bush.

Huckabee and Santorum still leading Jim “Happy” Gilmore: a sign that perhaps Gilmentum isn’t.

Let’s be plain: the story on the GOP side is Trump. It isn’t bragging if you can do it, he broke all the rules and won. He won big. It’s time for everyone else to test him and see if he can take a punch from someone not named Bush. Getting punched by Jeb the Bush Bear is like getting slapped by Barney the Dinosaur or assaulted by Mr. Rodgers.

With 2/3 of the vote counted, Clinton is getting crushed. This is the other story, Trump and the devastating loss of the presumptive nominee. Donald Trump has more raw votes than HRC. Let that soak in. He was in a eight candidate race. She was in a two candidate race.

Trump has changed campaign speeches and other candidates must note it. In an age of social media, nobody wants a written speech. He talks, they speechify. Can a speech still work? I hope so.

Here is what New Hampshire taught us:

Donald Trump is a serious candidate. In a multi-candidate race, he will win. There is no goal he did not surpass, no group he did not take.

HRC is a horrible candidate. She is weak and is counting on a “fire wall” that consists of having the field cleared for her so far in advance that she cannot lose. Nobody is passionate for her . . . one more loss and she is down and out. Surely she cannot lose South Carolina?

Joe Biden should run.

Marco Rubio will get another chance, but he failed very badly. This was his “silver” to win and would have made it a three way race. He manned up tonight and admitted that he cost his team the race. Good. Now win somewhere.

Bush spent like fury and got about what Cruz got spending nothing. Bush should go. Will he? No. Should he? Yes. Mr. Bush: leave now for the good of the party.

Kasich is not a story. He got the Huntsman vote, this is just such a large field that the “good government” types look large. He bet the farm and Trump bought the farm and now Kasich is sharecropping on it.

Chris Christie is the most selfish Republican candidate I have seen. He is unpopular in New Jersey and is now unpopular in the national party. He spent millions to get nothing. Good riddance. Carson and Fiorina should stop running as well.

The Democratic Party is leaderless. The Republican Party has five plausible candidates: Trump is the frontrunner.

___________

Bias alert: I have close friends who work for Rubio, Trump, and Cruz. I have called for Mr. Bush, Mr. Carson, and Mr. Christie to drop out the past.

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