The State of the Presidential Race

Last updated on: June 26, 2015 at 7:30 am by John Mark N. Reynolds

The State of the Presidential Race 2015-06-24T16:54:51-04:00 John Mark N. Reynolds

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The race for President is almost fully formed. Kasich might run, at least as a favorite son candidate, and Biden might still grip and grin his way into confronting Clinton, but most of the serious players are already in the race. Trump is also running.

Clinton is blessed to confront the non-electable, the indigestible, and the forgettable: Sanders is running for the socialist vote in the US, a dominant demographic in college towns, but almost no place else. If you can stand ten minutes of Lincoln Chaffee, you have serious self esteem problems. As for the other white guys running . . . they seem straight from a 1970’s casting of a made for television movie on a run for the White House. Remember any made for tv movie from the 1970’s? Nobody does.

Clinton may lose a few primaries because nobody much likes Clinton after she speaks to them, but she is still the favorite to get the nomination. Sanders should get her to say a few foolish things on the trail to tamp down his support and that would be a blessing if her built-in-forty-eight percent of the vote cared. They do not. Can Clinton win? Of course she can. Can she lose? Maybe. She is the establishment candidate in a year where people are sick of the establishment.

The Republican race has been called a “clown car” . . . you know where every silly person decides to run . . . and there is Donald Trump . . . but, in fact, it is a sign that GOP types think Clinton can be beaten. If you don’t run now and you are my age or thereabouts, you are never going to run again if the GOP takes the White House. It would be eight years until the nomination would be open and by then the administration would have produced new stars. Ask Sarah Palin.

The GOP field falls neatly into the qualified governors, the young and restless, interesting people running, and Donald Trump.

Governors have executive experience and make great candidates.

The GOP has Bush, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Perry, and Walker. It might pick up Chris Christie, though it might not be worth the effort. Bush has money, the establishment, and a fine record in Florida. He has the charisma of Bert of Bert and Ernie. Huckabee was a wildly successful governor and brilliant communicator who has spent too long hawking product on FOX. Jindal is smart, has more ideas than money, and is pretty unpopular in Louisiana. Perry was a good governor in a state (Texas) where the governor has little power and . . . I cannot recall what his weakness is. Walker is the conservative superstar from Wisconsin, but lately may have gotten too big for his britches and forgotten who got him there.

Nobody is flawless. Bush is my least favorite of the lot, Jindal has the most upside, and Walker the fewest liabilities.

And so it is worth a look at the young and the restless members of the GOP. They may not be young in terms of age, though some are, but they are young in terms of experience. It didn’t hurt Obama in terms of winning, but wasn’t great in terms of running the nation. The serious players here are Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Paul, and Rubio. Carson is smart enough for the job, but not qualified for it. Cruz has the brains, the plan, but may lack the temperament. He certainly lacks executive experience. Fiorina is running for the Cabinet as the designated Clinton basher. Paul is his dad without the goofy charm. At least I know he will be running for the rest of my life. Rubio is everyone’s choice for Vice President and most of GOP voters’ second choice for President. He lacks executive experience.

In this group, Cruz and Rubio have a serious shot at the nomination. Rubio is the candidate the Democrats fear . . . but may also have a few skeletons in the Florida bungalow.

I cannot bother to think about George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, and Rick Santorum. Pataki was a bland governor of New York who did things that offended few and was around when Rudy was saving New York City. Lindsey Graham is running for John McCain’s son. Rick Santorum is a fine man, a decent man, so right he will never be President.

And then there is the Donald.

There is no front runner in the GOP. Clinton has trouble breaking 47/48% in the Real Clear Politics polling average against decent GOP candidates. That may be her ceiling if the GOP does not mess up. There is only room for three candidates in a serious primary race . . . and right now I think that is Bush, Cruz, and a third. Walker has faded a bit and Rubio has moved up. Bush will endure due to money. He can lose a few and stay in the race. Cruz has the true believers and the brains. The rest of the lot is playing for the third slot or for delegates to be traded at the rare, but possible meaningful convention.

If I had to predict at the moment, it would be Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Martinez. Bush/Cruz is also an interesting combination or Bush/Martinez. This is not what I am endorsing, but what the state-of-the-race appears to me to be at the moment.

I think if the election were held today knowing what we know today about each, Clinton would win. If the election were held after months of pounding on Clinton (as will actually happen), then I think Rubio would probably win, Walker and Bush might, and Cruz probably would not. Again, this is analysis at the moment, not my preferences. Both Paul and Huckabee almost poll plausibly against Clinton, but (oddly) will have a hard time getting the nomination. Nobody else has the heft in the polls (yet) to match up against Clinton.

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