Decision 2016: State of the Presidential Race

Last updated on: May 11, 2015 at 7:03 pm by John Mark N. Reynolds

Decision 2016: State of the Presidential Race 2015-05-11T19:03:33-04:00 John Mark N. Reynolds

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This will be the most important Presidential race of your lifetime.

Since we have all been told this during every Presidential race: how can this be true? It is true for the same reason that “we live in perilous times” is always true. Any republic is in danger every time there is a transition in the chief executive. The rule of law is so fragile and our Republic has already experienced one near-death election (1860) and several close calls (1800, 1828, 1876, 1932, 1960).

We should take nothing for granted and make sure our own behavior as citizens strengthens the Republic and does not weaken her. The Presidency has grown in power to the point that our system of government is out of balance. The next President will have more power than the other two branches of government combined. At this point, they are stuck as checks to Presidential power rather than co-equal branches whatever School House Rock taught me.

The oldest of American parties, the Democratic, continues to have only one serious candidate: Hillary Clinton. She is surely the most powerful non-incumbant to seek the nomination since Dwight Eisenhower looked for a first term and both parties would have nominated the old general. She is also polarizing and partisan. If she is the nominee, the Democratic base (47/48%) of the electorate will turnout, but it is not plain she can win over the rest with her history of scandals and her poor political skills. Secretary Clinton has never won a competitive election and lost a nomination fight to Barack Obama that she should have won in a year where any Democrat was likely to win.

She has no executive experience, a lackluster Congressional career, and a long stint standing with her man in forming Clinton Inc. If we all liked Ike, even those who did not vote for him, only her partisans can stand Clinton. She is the Ted Cruz of the Democratic Party without Ted’s charm and experience.

Doubt the GOP has a chance? Look at the quality and numbers running compared to 2012: somebody knows something and it is not that HRC is a lock in the general. Young pols like Marco Rubio do not throw away their chances on a lost cause. Rubio is running because a GOP victory will create a new administration full of contenders and he just might find his time has passed over two terms of Somebody Else.

There are three leading candidates at this moment. I have listed them in the order where they presently stand.

Scott Walker has the executive experience to run. He is no firebrand and unites all the wings of the GOP. The Midwest primaries (especially Iowa) should be his. Forget the “gaffes” the media has tried to hang on him. He shows the staying power and energy a Tim Pawlenty never had. Sadly, while Walker has more charisma than Pawlenty, this is praising him with faint damns. Walker needs more foreign policy know-how, but his economic vision is sharp.

Jeb Bush also has the executive experience, great fundraising power, and the sort of moderate persona that wears well in the general election. He might be able to attract Hispanic votes. I think he is very vulnerable however since there is no enthusiasm for him on the ground. Think a candidate distrusted by a part of the Party as Romney was without Romney’s gift of a weaker field.

Primary voters might like Mr. Bush personally, but they do not want another “anointed” candidate. Mr. Bush is, bluntly, as boring as nominating Bert the Muppet for President and anybody excited about Clinton versus Bush is trying to relive a misspent youth. However, Mr. Bush is well briefed on all the issues foreign and domestic.

If Marco Rubio had Scott Walker’s resume, or Scott Walker had Rubio’s personality, Scott Rubio or Marco Walker, would be the nominee. Sadly, Rubio is as innocent of executive experience as Clinton. He is, however, everyone’s second favorite candidate and one few dislike. He has the right voting record for the party, but does not come across as an extremist. If Bush cannot win in New Hampshire, then Rubio will become the “anybody but Walker” choice for the establishment. Rubio is sharp on both foreign and domestic policy.

Then there is the second tier that is less likely to get the nomination, but could win boatloads of delegates. These three mighty men are great, but they do not make it into the top three (to use a Biblical turn of phrase).

Mike Huckabee had two good terms as governor and is the best communicator in the party. Sadly, he has also made some career choices (hawking marginal products) and is an older, white, overweight, evangelical at a time when all those things are tough sells. Is this fair? This is not fair, but it was not fair to blame Herbert Hoover for the Great Depression either. Huckabee is such a skilled campaigner that he could win delegates and hope for a speech so powerful at the convention that he has to be put on the ticket. William Jennings Bryan did it, but then he lost the White House three times.

Ted Cruz is brilliant, hardworking, and acerbic. Like Rubio, he has no executive experience and light legislative background. Cruz is a movement man and the primary voters may love him, but few will like him. He will be the first choice of a powerful army of supporters with lots of funding but nobody’s second choice. His best chance is that one of the “acceptables” slips and provides him space. He should also shine in debates. He will be the smartest guy there unless Bobby Jindal runs.

Bobby Jindal has executive experience and can match Cruz for brainpower. Sadly, he is unpopular at home and has not done well at communicating outside the base. He might run, but Huckabee is a better communicator (with the same experience) and Cruz a better debater.

If John Kasich runs, he will be a contender only if one of the big three gives him space. Any governor of Ohio must be taken seriously.

Rand Paul has too many handicaps to be a serious contender. He has the baggage of his Dad without the lunatic charm. His foreign policy is not GOP mainstream. Cruz sucks up a great deal of the “hard core” wing of the Party he might have attracted. He also has a plodding speaking style. He might degenerate to a “favorite son” candidate in a locked convention.

Everyone else shows too little interest in running (the governor of Michigan), lacks election experience (Carson), or is a lunatic (Trump).

The governor of New Mexico, Susana Martinez, will be the Vice Presidential nominee.

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