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What would an end to the war in Ukraine look like?

What would an end to the war in Ukraine look like?

Last updated on: September 13, 2024 at 6:17 am by Jim Denison

What would an end to the war in Ukraine look like? 2024-09-13T06:17:28-05:00 Jim Denison

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When pressed on how he would approach the war in Ukraine should he win in November, former President Donald Trump reiterated his belief that the war just needs to end. Both Vice President Kamala Harris and the ABC moderators attempted to contrast that statement with the idea that Ukraine needs to win. But while the majority of Americans still want to see Ukraine retake their territory and defeat Russia, a growing percentage agree with the former President.

So what would it look like for the war in Ukraine to end quickly? And is that an outcome that either Ukraine or Russia would be interested in pursuing?

Let’s start by looking at it from Ukraine’s perspective.

How Ukraine sees the war

While Ukraine has done far better than much of the world expected when Russia decided to cross their borders and devastate much of their country, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see a way that they can turn the tide and retake the land that they have lost.

To be clear, that is still their goal, and some believe that their recent invasion of Russia was meant—at least in part—to give them something with which to exchange for their territory in an eventual treaty. What’s less clear, however, is whether they’ll be able to hold that land long enough for it to be of use.

Yet, despite the mounting odds, a poll of Ukrainian citizens earlier this year found that 73 percent believe it’s still possible to win, even if the rest of the world has their doubts. Those expectations are important because they put fairly severe restrictions on the kind of treaty that Ukrainian President Zelensky can accept without losing the favor of his people.

For example, the same survey found that 71 percent of respondents would demand a change of leadership if they disagreed with the terms required for peace, while 7 percent—including 15 percent of active-duty soldiers and veterans—would join an armed protest. Whether that reaction is bluster in the face of a hypothetical situation or genuinely reflects how they would respond, it shows that it is far easier for those outside Ukraine’s borders to say they should work toward a treaty than it is for Zelensky and Ukraine’s leadership.

And those difficulties become even more apparent when you examine their realistic options in light of what Russia hopes to achieve.

What Russia really wants

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given many reasons why his invasion of Ukraine was a matter of national security. Unfortunately, the fact that most of those reasons are lies does not seem to matter much within his borders. As such, there is little reason for him to change course now.

The Ukrainian attacks on Moscow and incursion across the Russian border join Western sanctions as the latest in a long line of attempts to increase pressure on Putin and drive a wedge between him and the Russian people. However, those measures have largely failed to accomplish that purpose. It turns out, war remains a powerful tool that the Russian president is more than capable of using to great effect.

Still, he is not going to want to fight this war forever.

When Russia first invaded, their goals were to conquer all of Ukraine. However, when those first attacks failed, the goals seemed to change. In the two-and-a-half years since then, his armies have focused on capturing and holding the eastern part of Ukraine while bombing much of the western portion wherever possible. And when you look at the land Russia now holds, it’s easy to see why.

Russia is currently the largest exporter of wheat in the world, supplying roughly 20 percent of the global market. Before the war, Ukraine ranked fifth on that same list. In fact, Ukraine has long held the moniker of “the breadbasket of Europe,” and the primary reason was the fertile “black soil” found across the eastern part of the country. Russia now controls most of that land, and they are well on their way to claiming the rest as well.

Considering that, before the war, agriculture employed 14 percent of the Ukrainian population and produced 45 percent of their export revenue, the permanent loss of this territory would be catastrophic for the nation’s prospects of recovery. And, for the same reasons, keeping that land is among Putin’s primary concerns when the war comes to a close.

As such, he understandably feels free to bomb Kyiv and the western half of the country with impunity because he is not planning on being the one to have to rebuild it. That responsibility will ultimately fall to NATO and the countries that have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on helping Ukraine survive this long.

And therein lies the lesson for us today.

Count the cost

One of Christ’s most oft-quoted admonitions was to “count the cost” before taking on a task that may prove difficult to complete (Luke 14:28). The idea is often used to encourage people to be good stewards of their resources and help us guide our choices financially. And it’s also good advice for our leaders as they wrestle with the question of how to address what’s going on in Ukraine.

Yet, while that is a solid application of the principle Jesus described, when we apply that approach to our walk with the Lord, it falls short.

You see, the initial context of that statement was Jesus warning his followers—who, at that time, were comprised of “great crowds” rather than just the twelve (Luke 14:25)—that the cost for following him would be everything. He was not asking them to create a line in their minds that they wouldn’t cross but, rather, to understand that truly being his disciples meant having no line at all when it comes to what God can ask of us.

Far too often, we are tempted to treat our relationship with the Lord as if we were renovating a kitchen or trying to decide whether to buy name-brand groceries rather than generic ones. But that’s not how it should work in the kingdom of God.

We are called to present our bodies as a living sacrifice (Romans 12:1), and Christ was clear that doing so could mean giving up everything (Matthew 16:24–26). At the same time, Jesus was equally clear that whatever such obedience costs us will be more than worth it in the end (Mark 10:29–30).

We just have to believe—truly believe—that he was telling the truth. And such faith becomes far more difficult to maintain when we have not already decided that faithfulness to God is worth any cost.

So, have you drawn any lines with God? Is there a cost you are not willing to pay in order to follow him?

If the answer is yes—and I suspect it is for most of us—then take some time right now to ask the Holy Spirit to help you understand why. Then ask for him to let you know what needs to change in order to give a different response.

And remember, when Christ counted the cost in the Garden of Gethsemane, he deemed every one of us to be worth the price he would have to pay.

Can you say the same about him?

Friday news to know:

*Denison Forum does not necessarily endorse the views expressed in these stories.

Quote of the day:

“Teach us, good Lord, to serve you as you deserve; to give and not to count the cost, to fight and not to heed the wounds, to toil and not to seek for rest, to labor and not to ask any reward, save that of knowing that I do your holy will.” — Ignatius of Loyola

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