Buddhist Catholic Contemplative Evangelical General Christian Hindu Jewish Latter-day Saint Muslim New Visions Progressive Christian

Beliefs

Topics

Columnists

Resource Library

Research Tools

Video

Podcasts

Thought Readers

Faith In Media Tracker

Newsletters

Ad-Free & Subscriber Log-In Subscription Support

Follow Patheos

Home
Catholic
History and Religion
The Election at 8 AM ET on Wednesday, 11-4-20

The Election at 8 AM ET on Wednesday, 11-4-20

Last updated on: November 4, 2020 at 12:42 pm by Dave Armstrong

The Election at 8 AM ET on Wednesday, 11-4-20 2020-11-04T12:42:00-04:00 Dave Armstrong

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

As of 8 AM and the statistics at Politico, if we give Biden Wisconsin (very slight lead) and Trump Georgia, NC, and Alaska, it stands at Biden 248, Trump 247. Trump is ahead in PA, so if we give him that, he goes to 267. If Biden then gets Michigan (though Trump is very slightly ahead now, with a 0.5 lead, at 91% reporting, which was up 0.1 from the report at 90%), he is at 264. Nevada with its 6 votes would then determine the election.

Right now Nevada is Biden 49.2 and Trump 48.6 with 67% in. Only about 8000 votes separate them.

If Trump wins Michigan but not Pennsylvania, then he is at 263 and Biden would be 268. Then Biden would win if he got Nevada, but not Trump, who would be at 269. But it very well might be that Trump will get one more in Maine which sometimes (like Nebraska) splits its two electoral votes. That’s where the remaining electoral vote is, because there are 538 total. Maine (like most states) is a GOP stronghold in its areas other than the coast / more urban areas.

So, bottom line, Trump winning Pennsylvania + Nevada is his best bet. If either candidate wins PA and MI, they win. Trump may also still pull out a Wisconsin victory (it hasn’t been called), because he is only 0.7 behind, with 5% of the votes left to count.

It’s the closest election since 2000, and like JFK in 1960 as well. The Dems won the latter by cheating in Illinois, as is pretty well accepted by historians, I think. The GOP won in 2000, as determined by the Supreme Court after examining the crazy-close Florida vote, so of course that’s not good enough for the Dems (not enough authority, I guess) and they still yelled “rigged” for four years . . .

Meanwhile, the polls were wildly wrong in just about every battleground state except for Arizona. What else is new? The pollsters who got 2016 right (like Trafalgar) have explained why this is, but few listened. Nate Silver gave Trump 10% odds of winning.

I also provided live updates last night at 10 PM, 12 midnight, and 1:30 AM ET:

10 PM:

We don’t know much yet, but we know that Trump is 2.4% ahead in Florida, with 93% of precincts reporting, and the always heavily Republican panhandle probably not in yet. This is good news, because he barely won the state last time, and because of the implication that he has held senior citizen voters.

He also is 14 points higher in Miami-Dade County: presumably because of the Cuban vote. I think this bodes well for other close / battleground states. So far, CBSN, that I am watching (because I don’t have cable TV) isn’t calling many states: only the predictable ones. I think I have all the states right in my predictions so far: that have been called.

Trump is 0.8 points ahead in N. Carolina with 86% in.

Trump is 3.3 points ahead in Wisconsin with 52% in.What few indications we have so far favor Trump.

In the Senate, Graham is over 12 points ahead in S. Carolina, and projected to win. His opponent set an all-time record in spending against him, and it didn’t matter.

Sen. Tillis is 1.1 ahead in N. Carolina, with 84% in. These two results, if they hold, suggest that the Republicans will keep control of the Senate.

Sen. Ernst in Iowa was trending late, as was John James in Michigan.

12 Midnight:

Trump has won N. Carolina 50.1 to 48.7.

5.1 ahead in Wisconsin with 82% in. Great news!

Ahead by 5.7 in Iowa with 77% counted.

Won Ohio by 8.2 points with 96% in. Way better than the skewed polls predicted . . . We just drove through there twice. Trump signs were everywhere.

Ahead by 5.4 in Texas with 77%.

Arizona is the main (and almost only) bad news so far. Reince Priebus thinks it was called too soon by Fox.

Senate:

Perdue way ahead in Georgia, Ernst 4.6 ahead in Iowa with 77%. Collins 10 points ahead in Maine, with 61%. Tillis won N. Carolina. That’s already 49 GOP, if the three above hold.

At least 2 GOP pickups in the House. No Dem pickups.

These are all fabulous trends (minus Arizona) and it makes it look good for Pennsylvania and Michigan, which would put Trump over the top, I believe.

And what does this show about the polls? Almost all of them had Biden ahead by 5-8 points in battleground states. Almost all dead wrong.

I have only one state wrong so far (if Arizona holds for Biden).

1:30 AM:

Ahead in Georgia by 5.7 with 92% counted.

Florida was won by 3.5 points.

Ahead by 9.2 in Michigan, but only 60% in, and no doubt much of Dem-dominated urban area vote to go.

3.9 ahead in Wisconsin with 93% in.

Ahead by 14.4% in Pennsylvania with 66% in. That’s certainly a good place to be so far.

Ahead in Iowa by 8 points (99% in).

Behind by 9 in Minnesota with 87%. I likely got Minnesota and Arizona wrong.

Looking at my electoral predictions, if I give Biden Arizona, Minnesota, and Michigan (which I would then get wrong), it’s Biden 254 and Trump 284. This has Trump winning Wisconsin (where he’s looking real good). But we see that if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he goes to 264 and Biden gets to 274 and wins.

On the other hand, if we give Biden Arizona, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, it’s Biden 258 and Trump 280, with Trump winning if he takes Michigan. But if he loses Michigan, he goes to 264 and Biden wins with 274.

Therefore, it looks like it literally comes down to either Michigan or Pennsylvania. Trump can win if he takes either state, + Wisconsin. I would say Pennsylvania is more likely and that Biden forfeited the state when he talked about phasing out oil in the second TV debate with Trump. Thanks, Joe! If you lose by losing that state, I think this reason will be talked about forever. It’s the equivalent of Hillary’s “deplorable” comment.

Sen. Ernst won in Iowa, Collins looks pretty good in Maine.

GOP picked up one governorship in Montana, giving them 27-23 if everything holds.

George Stephanopolous has conceded that it is looking like a “replay” of 2016. There you have it!

Things are looking very good, folks, and I think it is much more than a 50% chance that Trump will win, but it won’t be decided tonight and I’m goin’ to bed!

Wednesday, Nov. 4th, 11:30 AM ET:

Biden is now pulling ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin (ahead by 0.7 and 0.6), and they are saying that the remaining vote in WI, MI, and PA is largely urban.

Assuming Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump’s only hope (as I have noted as one scenario) is to win Pennsylvania + Nevada. He is currently 0.6 behind in Nevada, with 67% reported.

All we can do at this point (besides pray) is hope that the good people of Pennsylvania (where my wife’s father came from) will understand (particularly) that Biden will ruin the oil industry in their state if he has his way.

If they don’t vote Trump (along with Nevada), then our solace would be that it looks like the GOP will keep control of the Senate, meaning that a Biden squeak-through victory can scarcely be considered a mandate.

*
In Michigan, Republican John James is ahead in the Senate race by 0.4%, with 96% counted.

The Senate would be the bulwark against the judicial radicalism of packing the Supreme Court and ramming through other far left judges, as well as preventing radical / socialist Biden legislation like the abominable, ridiculous Green New Deal, and the elimination of the filibuster, electoral college, adding two new (liberal states), etc. (all of which the Dems have seriously threatened to do in their temper tantrum after Justice Barrett was appointed and confirmed). It’s the genius of checks and balances.

Then once the American people see what a radical socialist Biharrisen administration (run behind the scenes by Sanders and AOC) does, they will quite possibly come to their senses and give the GOP control of the House in 2022, just as happened in 1994 after Bill Clinton, and in 2010 after Obama’s election:

The 2010 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, in the middle of Democratic President Barack Obama’s first term. Republicans ended unified Democratic control of Congress and the presidency by winning a majority in the House of Representatives.

Republicans gained seven seats in the Senate (including a special election held in January 2010) but failed to gain a majority in the chamber. In the House of Representatives, Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats, the largest shift in seats since the 1948 elections. In state elections, Republicans won a net gain of six gubernatorial seats and flipped control of twenty state legislative chambers, . . .

That’s America waking up after going too far left and seeing the inevitable harmful results of that. Unfortunately, they also re-elected both men (fickle!), but what can you do?

***

Photo credit: chayka1270 (9-29-17) [Pixabay / Pixabay License]

***

Political & Ethical & Moral Issues

2020 election

2020 presidential campaign

2020 presidential election

American politics

American presidential election

Previous Post

November 3, 2020

Seidensticker Folly #59: Medieval Hospitals & Medicine

Next Post

November 4, 2020 Seidensticker Folly #60: Anti-Intellectual Medieval Christians?

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category & Last Things About Me Anti-Catholicism Atheism & Agnosticism Baptism and Sacramentalism Bible and Tradition Blessed Virgin Mary Books by Dave Armstrong C. S. Lewis Calvinism & General Protestantism Catholic Apologetics Catholic Apologists Catholic conversion Catholic converts Christmas Church (Ecclesiology) Church History Conversion and Converts Development of Doctrine Eastern Orthodoxy Ecumenism & Christian Unity Eucharist & Liturgy Fathers of the Church French Translations G. K. Chesterton Hell Hell & Satan Hell & Satan & Last Things Heresies & Comparative Religion Holistic Health Inquisition & Crusades & Scandals James White Jews & Judaism & Old Testament John Calvin John Henry Newman Liberal / Modernist Theology Life Issues Literary Resume Lutheranism Mariology Martin Luther Music Orthodoxy Papacy & Infallibility Personal Page Philosophy & Science Political & Ethical & Moral Issues Protestant Persecution & Intolerance Protestantism Purgatory Purgatory & Penance Romantic & Imaginative Theology Saints & Purgatory & Penance Salvation Salvation & Justification Satan & Last Things Sexuality and Gender Issues Spanish Translations Traditionalism vs. Radical Catholic Reactionaries Traducciones al español / tradução para português Trinitarianism & Christology Uncategorized Videos

Select a Month October 2026 September 2026 August 2026 July 2026 June 2026 May 2026 April 2026 March 2026 February 2026 January 2026 December 2025 November 2025 October 2025 September 2025 August 2025 July 2025 June 2025 May 2025 April 2025 March 2025 February 2025 January 2025 December 2024 November 2024 October 2024 September 2024 August 2024 July 2024 June 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 June 2023 May 2023 April 2023 March 2023 February 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 March 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 April 2010 March 2010 December 2009 October 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 March 2009 February 2009 October 2008 September 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 May 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 October 2005 June 2005 April 2005 February 2005 July 2004 May 2004 April 2004

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz