Relative fertility and the decline of the West

Last updated on: April 19, 2015 at 1:44 pm by Dan Peterson

Relative fertility and the decline of the West 2015-04-19T13:44:30-06:00 Dan Peterson

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A backstreet scene in Sana‘a, Yemen, in peacetime
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Earlier today, I posted an item about the decision by increasing numbers of women in the West not to have children.

I feel that I can’t leave that topic without a further comment, partly bibliographical:

Demographic shrinkage of the West relative to, say, the Islamic world — and that shrinkage is dramatic — and of the more prosperous and highly educated portion within Western society relative to other classes, will have (is having) economic, political, and social effects far beyond its impact on the specific people who’re deciding not to have children.

I haven’t read systematically on this topic, but George Weigel’s 2006 The Cube and the Cathedral: Europe, America, and Politics without God, Mark Steyn’s 2008 America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It, and Mary Eberstadt’s 2014 How the West Really Lost God: A New Theory of Secularization certainly offer food for thought.

For a distinct discussion of how demographic trends can impact politics, create instability, lead to war, and so forth, see Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population, a 2005 book by my former BYU colleague (and sometimes fellow FairMormon speaker) Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer. They worry that a society in which hundreds of thousands of men simply cannot find wives or begin families is a society that may come to view them as dangerous, and to use them as cannon fodder.

But back to the West:

The replacement rate — that is, the fertility rate per woman required to maintain a stable population — is approximately 2.1 children.

As of 2014, the actual number was 2.01 in the United States, 1.90 in the United Kingdom, 1.61 in Russia, 1.59 in Canada, 1.48 in Spain, 1.43 in Germany, 1.42 in Italy, 1.41 in Greece, and 1.40 in Japan.

By contrast, the number was 2.86 for Pakistan, 2.87 for Egypt, 3.16 for Jordan, 3.92 for the Sudan, 4.09 for Yemen, 5.25 for Nigeria, 5.43 for Afghanistan, and 6.08 for Somalia.

Weak to nonexistent economies, coupled with burgeoning and young populations, are a recipe for instability and even, perhaps, for foreign adventurism. And very comfortable economies that pamper a dwindling population might well offer an irresistible temptation — or an infuriating target for envy and hatred.

Just a cheery thought for a Sabbath afternoon.

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