Exit poll reductions not likely to lessen Catholic vote impact

Last updated on: October 19, 2012 at 7:56 am by CNA Daily News

Exit poll reductions not likely to lessen Catholic vote impact 2012-10-19T07:56:00+00:00 CNA Daily News

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

Washington D.C., Oct 19, 2012 / 01:56 am (CNA).- A decision to reduce the number of states included in exit polls after the 2012 presidential election is not expected to detract from the importance attached to the Catholic vote or future efforts by candidates to attract Catholics as a group.

Dr. Mark M. Gray, research associate at Georgetown University’s Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate, explained that the change means “we won't be able to discern how Catholics voted nationally as quickly as we have in the past.”

However, he told CNA on Oct. 17 that he believes the votes of Catholics and other subgroups will still be a significant topic of discussion following the upcoming election.

On Oct. 4, the Washington Post reported that the decision to eliminate the polls in some states had been made by the National Election Pool, which sponsors national exit surveys of voters in order for the media to make predictions about election outcomes before all the votes have been counted.

For 20 years, exit polls after presidential elections have included voters in all 50 states. However, this year that number will be cut to 31 states, eliminating the surveys from 19 states where there is already a high level of confidence that one candidate will win.

The change will allow exit polls to focus on gathering data from hotly-contested swing states.

ABC News elections director Dan Merkle, a member of the National Election Pool’s managing committee, said the decision was to an attempt to maintain quality while dealing with increasing costs.

An increase in early voting has necessitated a rise in the use of telephone interviews rather than cheaper in-person precinct polls.

In addition, the National Election Pool is increasing the number of precincts that will be sampled in the national survey this year, facilitating detailed analysis of subgroups.

The states that will not have exit polls this year are: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. The District of Columbia will also be excluded.

As a result, analysts and researchers will not be able to see the individual state breakdown of voters by religion, sex, age or race in these states.

However, Gray explained that he does not think the change will affect the way in which campaigns appeal to the Catholic electorate.

“It does not diminish the importance of the Catholic vote either,” he added. For years, the Catholic vote has been considered an important demographic in presidential elections.

“The loss of the national exit polls simply means we won't quickly be able to discern how Catholics voted,” Gray explained. Instead, analysts will have to rely on small national surveys, such as The National Election Study, which “won't be released for some time after the election.”

Mark J. Rozell, professor of public policy at George Mason University, agreed that the change will likely not detract from the way that campaigns reach out to Catholics.

Election seasons will still include numerous polls with participants broken down by religious affiliation, he said, and individual campaigns look at voter subgroups in “minute detail.”

The biggest loss resulting from the decision to cut exit polls from some states will be to the academic community in its post-election analysis, Rozell stated.

“I don’t think it will minimize one bit the perceptions of Catholic voters,” he said.

Uncategorized

Previous Post

October 19, 2012

LA archbishop thinks best ways to reach youth are often old ones

Next Post

October 19, 2012 Pro-life activist encourages witnessing in difficult situations

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category Americas Asia - Pacific Europe Middle East - Africa Uncategorized US Vatican

Select a Month November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

Who killed his brother: Cain or Abel?

Select your answer to see how you score.

Cain Adam Abel Seth