Buddhist Catholic Contemplative Evangelical General Christian Hindu Jewish Latter-day Saint Muslim New Visions Progressive Christian

Beliefs

Topics

Columnists

Resource Library

Research Tools

Video

Podcasts

Thought Readers

Faith In Media Tracker

Newsletters

Ad-Free & Subscriber Log-In Subscription Support

Follow Patheos

Home
Evangelical
An Aging World and the Remaking of the “Global South”

An Aging World and the Remaking of the “Global South”

Last updated on: October 26, 2020 at 12:32 am by Philip Jenkins

An Aging World and the Remaking of the “Global South” 2020-10-24T13:10:18-04:00 Philip Jenkins

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

I have written a great deal through the years about the Global South, particularly in the context of Christianity. The term Global South was first popularized in 1980, to cover the continents of Africa, Latin America, and (most of) Asia. That concept has always had to be taken flexibly, because the different parts of that vast region were and are so diverse in terms of development, and relative concentrations of wealth. Recently, though, the divergences between regions and societies have grown enormously, a phenomenon I will explore by looking at one key bellwether statistic. To oversimplify, Africa is headed in one direction, Asia and Latin America in quite another. This should be borne in mind whenever we look at the contours of religious faith in “the South,” or the Majority World.

I have argued that demography and pattern of fertility shape religious loyalties and behavior. Briefly, low fertility societies such as Western Europe tend to be “low faith,” and secularized. High fertility societies such as most of Africa are correspondingly high faith. I won’t expand on this here, as I have covered the topic quite extensively in the past, especially in my recent book Fertility and Faith (Baylor University Press, 2020). Here, let me focus on one particular part of the demographic argument, namely the age profiles that result from different types of fertility.

Briefly, those high fertility/high faith societies tend to be much younger than their low fertility counterparts. One number that social scientists pay attention to is the proportion of the population who are teenagers or young adults, aged between 15 and 24—a stage of life often associated with unrest and, sometimes, violence. When that figure for any given society is much over 15 percent or so, demographers speak of a youth bulge and expect that fact to be manifested in various forms of conflict, instability, or economic strains. The Ugandan figure is 21 percent, compared to below 10 percent in aging Germany.

The reasons for this correlation are not hard to understand. How states cope with a youth bulge depends on the strength of state institutions and mechanisms, and their economic resources. Although some countries can provide adequate employment for teeming legions of teenagers and young adults, that is rarely true of societies in early stages of modernization and industrialization. Young people thus find themselves angry and frustrated, in search of scapegoats, and open to messages of radicalism, secular or religious. Countries with pronounced youth bulges are often marked by internal wars and conflicts, commonly but not necessarily expressed in religious terms.

The lower a country’s median age, the greater the prospects for instability. With all allowances for local conditions, we can even offer likely figures that correlate closely with instability. This would include a society where the proportion of people aged between 15 and 24 is around 20 percent and where the median age of the population is 22 or less. Of course, multiple factors are at work here, and a higher median age is in part a product of longer lifespans and better health care. But in practice, the relative median age corresponds very well indeed to higher or lower fertility rates.

That “youth bulge” is the normal pattern in virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa, and it contrasts utterly with aging Europe. Normally, when a country’s median age reaches 30, it is has moved towards a “European” demographic transition, and it is likely to be far more stable socially and politically. The age profile also has critical religious implications. Such egregiously young populations are also singularly open to the appeal of passionate or enthusiastic religion, and fervent revivalism, in a way that middle-aged and elderly societies are conspicuously not. Age is a key variable in religious behavior and practice.

Let me focus on that median age number, however crude a gauge it may be. Tell me a society’s median age, and I will be able to make some excellent deductions about its social realities, its social stability, and the likelihood that radical movements can readily call on mobs and enthusiastic recruits for militias. I will also suggest how receptive that society is to enthusiastic and devout religion.

In the mid-twentieth century, the Global South regions were all characterized by youth bulges, to a greater or lesser extent. In 1965, the median age for all the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean combined was 18.6, while for the whole of Africa it was 18.2, virtually the same. It made excellent sense to make comments about the shared social and demographic realities of the two continents, and their extremely young populations, with all the implications. This was the great age of the “Population Explosion” nightmare.

But then roll the film forward. If we rank the world’s 230 countries by their median age, then today, of course, virtually all the top sixty or so countries are European, together with Canada and some other similar WEIRD nations (Western, Educated, Industrial, Rich, and Democratic). Germany’s median age is 47.1. The median for the whole European Union is a venerable and thoroughly WEIRD 42.9.

At the other end of the scale in every sense, virtually all the fifty lowest median ages in the table are African, with a few South Asian and Middle Eastern outliers. The median age for the whole African continent has remained fairly steady, actually dropping to 17.5 in the mid-1980s, and even today has risen only to 19.7. Among particular countries, Niger is at rock bottom with 15.4, Uganda at 15.8. There are a couple of exceptions – South Africa at 27.1 – but generally, very few African countries rise above that critically perilous median age of 22 or so. Look at the median ages of the individual countries bordering Niger, and you will immediately understand why the vast Sahel region is such an enduring source of continental chaos, terrorism, state failure, and Islamist extremism. Burkina Faso stands at 17.3, Chad is 17.8, Mali is 15.8. Mighty Nigeria is 18.4. Some observers warn of the emergence of “Africanistan.”

The youth bulge remains a fundamental fact of demographic life, and seems to indicate a screaming distinction between Global South and Global North.

Now contrast Latin America and the Caribbean. As I suggested, in the mid- and late twentieth century, Latin American nations definitely fitted that “African” youth bulge model, and their median ages were startlingly young. But the figure then rose, from 18.6 in 1965 to 21 by 1985. But that figure then climbed at a striking clip, to top 25 by 2005, and today it stands at 31.0.

Most Latin American nations are aging rapidly, as their fertility rates plummet. If we turn back to that table of the world’s 230 nations, then the Latin American nation with the youngest age profile is Guatemala, with a median age of 22.1, a figure close to African conditions. Even so, this places the country at number 180 in the list, still ahead of almost all African nations. Besides Guatemala, only three Latin American nations have medians at or below 25 years: Belize, Honduras, and Bolivia. Meanwhile, several nations have medians above that symbolic landmark of thirty. These include Uruguay (35), Chile (34.4), Brazil (32.6), Argentina (31.7), and Colombia (30.0), with Mexico at 28.3 and Peru at 28.0.

All those medians have risen steadily in recent years, and will assuredly continue to do so, moving in what we might call “European” directions. Latin America is a fast-aging society, and its religious patterns will increasingly reflect that reality. Shall we say, it is moving inexorably towards WEIRDness, if it is not there yet.

Also, by so many measures, those aging Latin American nations are showing multiple secularizing trends. These include widespread acceptance of same sex marriage, in the teeth of opposition from all leading churches. Latin nations also record steadily growing numbers of Nones, people who reject any affiliation with religious tradition or institutions. Proportions of Nones, those sin religión, correlate closely both with falling fertility and rising median age, with Uruguay, Chile, and Brazil at the most secular end of the scale. In Chile, the Nones outnumber the evangélicos whose growth has been so widely noted in recent years. In each country, familiar US-style culture war divisions are stark.

Africa, in other words, still hews closely to that old “Third World” stereotype of social structure, while Latin America demonstrably does not. Asian realities are similar to the European-trending WEIRD model, but that is too large a topic to address here in any detail. For what it is worth, overall, the median age for the whole Asian continent rose from 19.8 in 1965 to 32.0 presently – very much indeed like Latin America, and radically unlike Africa.

Whenever we talk about Global South conditions, or Global South Christianity, those differences have to be borne in mind. We might even ask whether the whole “Global South” idea is still valid in the way it certainly was fifty or even twenty years ago. I believe it is useful. I will continue to use the phrase for those versions of non-Western Christianity that are new or recent in foundation, and which are still generally associated with poverty and state instability. But we do need to choose our language carefully.

Previous Post

October 23, 2020

He Who Comes Nearest To The Truth?

Next Post

October 27, 2020 A Tale of Two Evangelicalisms

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category abolitionism Abortion Abraham Joshua Heschel Abraham Kuyper Abraham Lincoln Academia Activism Adam Renberg Advent Adventist africa African American Religion Agnes Howard Albert Camus American History American Religious History American Revolution American West Anabaptists Ancient History Andrea Turpin Andrei Tarkovsky Anglicanism Annales Ansley Lillian Quiros anti-Catholicism Antisemitism Anxious Bench apologetics Apparitions Arash Azizi Archaeology archives art Artificial Intelligence Asia Asian Americans Augustine Authors Bad Bunny Baptism Baptists Barack Obama Battle of Hastings Benjamin Franklin Bernard-Henri Levy Beth Allison Barr Beth Moore Bethany Mannon Bible Bill Cunningham Billy Graham Black Music Bob Dylan Body Boenhoffer Books Breastfeeding Bruce Springsteen C.S. Lewis Calvinism Cancel Culture Capitalism Carmelites Catholicism Cedric Robinson Cesar Chavez Charismaticism charity Charles Dickens Charles Lindbergh Che Guevara Chicago Children Chinese Christianity Chris Gehrz Christ Christian death Christian Higher Education Christian life Christian Nation Christian Nationalism Christianity Today Christmas Church life Church Practice cinema Civil Religion Civil Rights Movement Civil War civility Classics Climate Change Cold War Colonial Mexico colonialism Comer Communism community complementarianism Conference on Faith and History Congregationalism Conspiracies Conspiracy Conversion Narratives Coronavirus Costa Rica Council of Nicaea Covid-19 Creation Critical Race Theory Crusades Culture culture wars Daniel K. Williams David Barton David Swartz Death Ways death with dignity DEI democracy Democratic Party Devotion Digital Age Diplomacy discipleship diversity Donald Trump Drama Dua Lipa Early Church early modern Early modern Catholicism Easter Eastern Christianity economic exploitation Education elections Elie Wiesel Elizabeth II Elizabeth Taylor emotions Empire Engineering England enslavement Entertainment Episcopal Church Erica Ramirez eschatology Eurocentrism Evangelicalism Evangelicals Exegesis Family Feminism Film Flannery O'Connor folk music Food Foreign Policy founding fathers Franciscans Franciscus Junius fundamentalism Funerals G.K. Chesterton Gender Genocide genre geography George W. Bush George Washington George Whitefield Global Christianity Global church Grief Guadalupe guest post Guest Post gun control gun violence Gustavo Gutierrez Hamid Dabashi Harold John Ockenga Harvest Hate Hawaiian Christianity Healing health care Heather Cox Richardson Hell Heresy Hermeneutics Higher Education Hinduism Hippocratic oath Historical Fiction Historical Methodology Historical Profession Historical Profession Historical Theology Historical Thinking historiography Holidays Holocaust horror movies Human rights Humanitarian Work humanities Hummingbirds Hungary hymns Imago Dei Immigration Injustice Interviews Iran Islam Islamophobia Israel Ivan's Childhood Jacob Randolph James Bratt Janine Giordano Drake Japanese history Japanese Literature Jean Paul Sartre Jesse Miranda Jesus Jesus Christ Jimmy Carter Joan Baez Joan Didion Joanne Freeman João B. Chaves Joao Chaves Joey Cochran John Calvin John Fea John Tillotson John Turner Johnny Cash Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Tran Joseph Smith Josh Howerton Journalism Jr. Judaism Jürgen Moltmann Just War Justice Justin Brierley Karl Barth Katelyn Beaty koi ponds Kris Kristofferson Kristin Kobes Du Mez Latin American Religious History Latino Americans Lectio Divina Leisure Lent Leonard Cohen liberal arts liberalism Liberation Theology Linda Ronstadt Lisa Clark Diller Literature Lou Reed Lynchings Lynneth Miller Renberg Mainline Protestantism Malcolm Foley Marilyn Monroe Maritime history Mark Noll Marriage Martin Luther Martin Luther King Martyrdom Marxism Mary Masih Alinejad mass shootings material culture medieval Christianity Medieval Ethiopia Melissa Borja memory Mennonites Mental Health Mental Illness Methodism Mexican Americans Mexicans Mike Madrid Miles Mullin Min Jin Lee Miscarriage Missionaries Mister Rogers Mitt Romney modernity Monasticism Mormonism Motherhood Mothers of the Church Moving Music Musicals Nadya Williams Nahua Christianity Native Americans Natsume Sōseki New Contributor New England New Year New York Nico Non-Violent Protest Orthodoxy pacifism Paleo Evangelicals Palestinians Parenting Patti Smith Paul Kingsnorth Pedro Calderón de la Barca Pentecostalism Philip Jenkins Phillis Wheatley physician-assisted suicide pilgrimage Pilgrims pluralism Plutocracy Poetry Politics Pope Francis Pope Leo XIV post-modernism prayer preaching Presbyterians prosperity gospel Protest Public history Publishing Puritans purity culture Quakers race Race Massacres Racial Capitalism racial reconciliation racialization Racism Raha Bahloulipour Re-Enchantment reading Reformation Refugees religion and the university religion and war Religious Freedom Religious Nones Religious Pluralism Religious Symbols religious violence Republican Party Revival Rita Coolidge Ritual Roger Williams Roman Catholic church Royalty Russell Moore same-sex marriage Sarah Irving-Stonebraker Scandinavia Science Science and Technology Scopes trial Scriptural Interpretation secularism Selena Quintanilla seminary Seventh-Day Adventists sexual morality Sexuality Sikhs Silence slaveholders theology Slavery Slavoj Zizek social justice Social Media Southern Baptist Convention Southern Religion Spain Spiritual Autobiography Spiritual but not religious Spiritual Discipline Sports Stanley Hauerwas Suffering Summer Camps Sunday Night Odds and Ends Supernatural Supreme Court Syriac Christianity Tal Howard Taylor Swift Teaching Technology Television Thanksgiving The Beatles The Mission theater TheoBros Theology Thomas Dixon Thomas Jefferson Thomas Kidd Thomas Merton Tim Gloege Tim Walz Tom Holland Tourism tradition Tragedy Translation Transnationalism Travel Trump Ukraine Uncategorized Unitarians United Methodist Church US History Vanessa Chan Velvet Underground Verónica A. Gutiérrez Veronica Gutierrez Vikings Violence Virgin Mary Virtue Virtue ethics Visions Voting War WCTU Wendell Berry Westminster Assembly White Evangelicalism Wildfires Winnie the Pooh Witches women Women in Ministry Women's and Gender Studies Work Worship writing Yasunari Kawabata Zena Hitz

Select a Month October 2026 September 2026 August 2026 July 2026 June 2026 May 2026 April 2026 March 2026 February 2026 January 2026 December 2025 November 2025 October 2025 September 2025 August 2025 July 2025 June 2025 May 2025 April 2025 March 2025 February 2025 January 2025 December 2024 November 2024 October 2024 September 2024 August 2024 July 2024 June 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 June 2023 May 2023 April 2023 March 2023 February 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 March 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

Which book prophesies the destruction of Nineveh?

Select your answer to see how you score.

Nahum Zephaniah Obadiah Jonah