Buddhist Catholic Contemplative Evangelical General Christian Hindu Jewish Latter-day Saint Muslim New Visions Progressive Christian

Beliefs

Topics

Columnists

Resource Library

Research Tools

Video

Podcasts

Thought Readers

Faith In Media Tracker

Newsletters

Ad-Free & Subscriber Log-In Subscription Support

Follow Patheos

Home
Evangelical
Religion News
Will UK Conservatives fail to even form the opposition?

Will UK Conservatives fail to even form the opposition?

Last updated on: November 5, 2025 at 12:00 pm by Adrian Warnock

0 Comments

Will UK Conservatives fail to even form the opposition? 2025-11-05T12:00:14+00:00 Adrian Warnock

LOGO Patheos Explore the world's faith through different perspectives on religion and spirituality! Patheos has the views of the prevalent religions and spiritualities of the world.

Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak in a Boxing RIng

Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak in a Boxing RIng AI generated image Source: OpenArt

Sunak’s party may slip to third place in the results amidst moral vacuum

For those of you reading this in America, allow me to explain that we do not elect our prime minister directly like your president. Instead we have a series of races for members of parliament which are each first past the post. This means that we can have some strange results, especially when third and fourth parties gain a higher percentage share of voice.

There was a lot of excitement in the UK at the end of last week because for the first time the Reform party led by “friend of Trump” Nigel Farage overtook the Conservative Party in an opinion poll. It was just one poll, but it was remarkable nonetheless and with the way Sunak’s Tories have been performing in the electioneering so far it is very possible that their trend towards electoral annihilation will continue.

The Conservatives are losing on their right flank to the Reform Party, they also seem to have given up the centre ground where UK elections are won to the Labour Party, and those who want to rejoin the EU or feel the two main parties are too similar are voting Liberal Democrat.

The Electoral Calculus poll of polls data suggests that the Labour Party will win a huge number of seats and this will leave Sir Keir Starmer as essentially an elected dictator here in the UK able to do more or less whatever he wants as he will easily have the votes to support any bills he wants to introduce.

Poll of polls data Source: Electoral Calculus

As you can immediately see there is a strange nature of our electoral system that means with just 41.4% of the vote Labour would be predicted to win 70% of the 650 seats! This feels a little unfair and would continue the trend in the UK of having a series of governments who do not have support of 50% of the population. Maybe this is partly why we are so cynical about politics over here. So many of us feel like we have a wasted vote and that is felt even more keenly in the so called “safe seats” where no matter how individuals choose to vote it feels as if we can’t make any difference. Arguably though in this election as we will see their is no such thing as a safe conservative vote.

The predicted results above is not even the end of the headache for Sunak’s Tories. IF the outlying poll which had the Reform party ahead of them is right then they might even fail to become the official opposition (which is the second largest party) and so not be the party that predominantly holds the government to account.

Here the weirdness really starts as the main beneficiary of the swing away from Tory to Reform would actually be the Liberal Democrats who gain a few more seats from the Tories column and demote them to third place in the number of seats. Thus if this scenario played out, despite the Liberals being in fourth place on vote share they would be in second place on seat count!

If you look at the BBC’s poll of polls it has an error range behind it and if you assume that the Conservatives and Greens poll at the lower end of their range but Reform, Liberals and Labour poll at the upper end the result is only FIVE Conservative MPs are returned to parliament.

No wonder the Conservative politicians are running scared and have started to talk about the need to avoid a Labour “supermajority” which is a concept we do not even have in this country. And this doesn’t even account fully for tactical voting where voters who would normally vote for a particular party decide that they are more concerned to get the incumbent party out and so lend their votes in a constituency to whoever the polls say is most likely to beat them.

But what does all this have to do with religion which is obviously the subject of this website?

Well first of all we can see that over here the electoral system is not so dominated by religious and social values. It has been striking how the election TV debates and interviews have not touched moral issues which are so key in the USA elections.

On gender and sexuality issues there is little to choose between the parties. Both parties are agreed that puberty blockers should not be used any more in children who wish to change gender. Both parties talk about the need to maintain biologically female only spaces. Both parties say conversion therapy (which aims to change someone’s gender identity or sexual orientation) should be banned. Neither party are talking about making any changes to gay rights.

There are no major parties in this election making policy proposals which will significantly alter the UK abortion laws. Even the most right wing party, Reform state that this matter should be left to the conscience of individual members of parliament. It is true, however, that the majority of those MPS who have previously voted to limit abortion have been from the Conservative Party. So it is possible that on this and euthanasia we may see a significant change in the next parliament. But it will not be one that the UK population have actively voted for, and it is not a subject that influences the voting patterns of religious people in the UK to the same extent as it does in the USA.

Perhaps immigration should be considered a moral issue more than it is. Many right wing Christians forget that Jesus and his parents were refugees fleeing to Egypt to escape persecution. No wonder Jesus himself urges us to care for the needy including refugees:

‘Come, you who are blessed by my Father, inherit the Kingdom prepared for you from the creation of the world. 35 For I was hungry, and you fed me. I was thirsty, and you gave me a drink. I was a stranger, and you invited me into your home. 36 I was naked, and you gave me clothing. I was sick, and you cared for me. I was in prison, and you visited me.’ (Matthew 25:34-36, NLT)

In the UK we have the Conservative Party who have presided over a large rise in immigration both legal and illegal despite Brexit being punished at the polls by a Labour Party who claim they will reduce immigration and the Reform party who blame immigration or all our troubles as a country. No party seems to be acknowledging that we hugely need immigrants to work in many sectors which British people are not keen to work in. At least Labour is promising to stop the Conservative’s gimmicky, expensive, and illegal plan to export migrants to Rwanda.

As a whole then it feels like this election is in a bit of a moral vacuum, apart from the usual claims and counter claims of lying, some of which do seem to stick on the Conservative Party in particular.

But the unspoken question of this election is do we need to reform our political system to some form of proportional representation which would mean that the smaller parties had fairer representation and we would have the typical continental coalition government of compromise between at least two parties. There is surprisingly little interest in this among the public despite the blatantly unfair nature of the likely results of this election in terms of a mismatch between votes cast and seats won.

Keir Starmer vs Rishi Sunak Debate: A Christian View

Why Does Trump the Felon Still Have Evangelical Support?

Jesus Wept with Compassion

Jesus is not a republican or a democrat

Embodied Worship: Corporate Singing and Lives of Service

Jesus’ Gospel of Social Justice

Our Racism – deadly as COVID19

General Christian

Religion News

Politics and Religion

About Adrian Warnock

Adrian Warnock

Medical doctor · Published author · Patheos writer since 2003

I have always lived within sixty miles of London, UK where I studied, worked and worshipped for thirty years. I began writing for this Patheos blog in April 2003, making it one of the longest-running individual columns on the Christian Internet. My writing here, on Substack, and in my books is influenced by my medical training, eight years of working as a psychiatrist in the UK’s National Health Service (NHS), eighteen years working in medical research in the pharmaceutical industry, twenty-five years of serving as a pastoral leader in a growing multicultural church, and a difficult decade of lived experience with chronic illness, including blood cancer, and the unexpected losses, including early retirement, that resulted.

Together, these all shape a biopsychosocial-spiritual approach which I first wrote about on Patheos in 2013. This model offers us hope, compassion, and healing in all life’s challenges. This holistic approach is based on the idea that all truth is God’s truth.

At times, since my illness, my faith has been faint. I wondered if this was the end of my story. I was not strong enough to live for Jesus the way I wanted to. I could not change myself. And then hope reminded me: The resurrection of Jesus changes everything. Just not all at once. Healing takes time. Compassion and patience sustain us over a lifetime of change. I aim to approach suffering with hope and compassion, and address tough questions including:

What does Jesus’ resurrection mean for you?

Raised With Christ: How the Resurrection Changes Everything (Crossway, 2010; 2nd edition, Amazon, 2025)
Why is change so difficult? What causes the resistance?

The Traitor Within: Understanding and Healing Our Deceitful Hearts (Amazon, 2026)
Why is change so slow? How does grace lead us over a lifetime?

Amazing Grace: How Faith Grows in the Human Heart (Amazon, 2026)
How do you become a Christian? Can you know if you really are one?

Hope Reborn: How to Become a Christian and Live for Jesus Co-authored with Tope Koleoso (Christian Focus, 2014)

Qualifications

I qualified with an MB BS from the University of London (equivalent to an MD in the United States), hold postgraduate qualifications in psychiatry (MRCPsych) and pharmaceutical medicine (MFFM, DipPharmMed), and took theological training courses run by Newfrontiers.

Connect With me

Substack: adrianwarnock.substack.com (the best way to ask questions)
Twitter/X: @adrianwarnock
Facebook: Adrian Warnock
Email: [email protected] (I may not be able to respond to every message)

Previous Post

June 13, 2024

Greg Laurie and Harvest Church: Fruit of Jesus Revolution

Next Post

June 21, 2024 God knows about your suffering: Spurgeon on God's Compassion

Recent Comments

0 | Leave a Comment

"Atheism is no more a single worldview than theism is a single worldview. Both however ..."

Erp

Thank God Atheists Do Not Live ..."

"Athiests believe in love, most reject God because of the God depicted in the old ..."

Patrick Dennis

Thank God Atheists Do Not Live ..."

"Have a read of some history, and you will find that your views are not ..."

Adrian Warnock

Thank God Atheists Do Not Live ..."

"You act like Christians invented basic human decency. Here's a news flash: Humans thrived for ..."

EarthGrowl

Thank God Atheists Do Not Live ..."

Browse Our Archives

Select a Category 1 and 2 Corinthians 1 and 2 Thessalonians 1 and 2 Timothy 1 John 300 Leaders A Life of Joy Abortion Acts of the Apostles Adrian on radio Adrian on TV Adrian's Story Albert Mohler Amazing Grace Arminocalvinist Spectrum Assurance Atonement Atonement Series Attributes of God Barnabas Best of the Blog Bible Bible Software Bible Translation Biblical Inerrancy Billy Graham Bob Roberts Books C. J. Mahaney Calvinism Cessationism Charis Warnock Charismatic Spectrum Charles Simeon Charles Spurgeon Church Leadership Colossians Complementarian - Egalitarian Spectrum Complementarianism Conferences Culture Daniel Debates Deuteronomy DGM08 DGM13 Discernment Doctrine Don Carson Ed Stetzer Eddy Leo Ephesians ESV Bible Translators Interview Evangelism in a Post-Christian World evolution Exodus Expository Preaching Ezekial Faith and Feelings Family Florida Galatians General Genesis Get Wisdom - Proverbs sermons Gifts of The Holy Spirit Gifts of the Holy Spirit 2006 Global Faith Forum Godly Attitudes Gospel Gospels Grace Greg Haslam Grudem vs Piper: The Baptism Debate Healing Heaven Hell and Rob Bell Hebrews Henry Tyler Henry Warnock Holy Spirit Holy Spirit Baptism Hope Reborn Hugh Palmer Irresistable Grace Isaiah J. I. Packer Jack Hayford Joel Joel Warnock John John Lanferman John MacArthur John Newton John Owen John Piper John Smyth Jonathan Edwards Josh Harris Justification Justin Taylor Kenneth Ulmer Leadership Leadership Lessons from 1 & 2 Samuel Lex Loizides Liam Goligher Lig Duncan Limited Atonement Lou Fellingham Mark Dever Mark Driscoll Martyn Lloyd-Jones Matt Chandler Mental Health Missionary Methods: St Paul’s or Ours? My Story N. T. Wright Nehemiah NWA08 NWA09 NWA10 Opinion OT History Books Pentateuch Personal Personal Revival Philippians PJ Smyth Podcast Politics Preaching Prophecy Proverbs Psalms Raised With Christ Reformed Charismatic Regeneration Relationships Resurrection Resurrection & Salvation Revival Rice Broocks Rich Man and Lazarus Rick Warren Rob Rufus Roland Allen Romans Sam Storms Sanctification Series Sermons Sermons on Philippians Serving Jesus at Work Sexuality Sin St Paul Steve Chalke Strange Fire Suffering T4G T4G Statement TAB09 Tamasin Warnock Teamwork Terry Virgo The Atonement Debate - Chalke book The Soulwinner The Spirit-Filled Church The Traitor Within Theologcial Spectrums Theosis Tim Challies Tim Keller Titus TOAM06 TOAM07 TOAM08 TOAM09 TOAM10 TOAM11 Todd Bentley Tope Koleoso Total Depravity Video Water Baptism Wayne Grudem Worship

Select a Month October 2026 September 2026 August 2026 July 2026 June 2026 May 2026 April 2026 March 2026 February 2026 January 2026 December 2025 November 2025 October 2025 September 2025 May 2025 April 2025 January 2025 November 2024 October 2024 August 2024 July 2024 June 2024 May 2024 April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 August 2023 May 2023 April 2023 February 2023 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 August 2021 May 2021 April 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 January 2019 December 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 June 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 June 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 April 2003

TAKE THE

Religious Wisdom Quiz

Who challenged Goliath to a duel before the army of Israel?

Select your answer to see how you score.

Jonathan David Abner Saul

Books by This Author Books by Adrian Warnock

See All Titles »

Will UK Conservatives fail to even form the opposition?

Sunak’s party may slip to third place in the results amidst moral vacuum

READ MORE

Adrian Warnock

Who challenged Goliath to a duel before the army of Israel?